Even as Bitcoin (BTC) is, as usual, stealing the show, Ethereum (ETH) continues its own saga, and looks to have a decent chance at finding a bottom inside very old historical support from 2017. The buy support, however, is simply not there yet, even if some indicators are flashing strength. This bottom-carving is coming after a shocking capitulation below extremely long-lived support in July.
Starting on the daily, we see what may be the beginning of some kind of consolidation at the bottom. Strength on the RSI is clearly growing and divergent with price. However, bears are clearly in control of this market, as volume crescendoed to unload ether on 14 and 15 August (Bittrex exchange)
The range here looks to be between roughly ₿0.0178 and the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). A consolidation here seems possible, although the structure of this consolidation - if it is one - is not yet clear. And the worrying volume profile suggests that this could still be a bear pennant, suggesting further downside. So the picture is not clear.
Looking on the 4-hour ETH/BTC chart, we see a couple of big hurdles for ether given the very shaky market confidence apparent. The 100 EMA marks the top of the the range, and above it a resistance zone from the last leg down.
Ether looks like it’s already being rejected again at the 100 EMA. The RSI is trending down, too, although it had recently diverged bullishly from price. Volume is not there. We may hope for a higher low to keep the reversal possibility in play.
Looking on the USD side of the chart, on the 2-day, we see that ETH is chewing through an important resistance zone which was important before the 2018 capitulation to sub-$100 prices. It would be nice for Ether to get and stay above $200, here, but the RSI profile shows no divergent strength; nor does the volume profile support it.
Because of the uncertain picture on the BTC pairing, things could still be salvaged here. Some timeframes show strength while others do not. The general feeling, though is weakness all around. The trends remain down across the board.
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