With yesterday’s loss of the recent Bitcoin (BTC) uptrend, it was starting to look like the medium term was going to turn bearish. And, this may still happen; but the LTF charts are looking decent today, and we may have seen enough buy support to prompt a move up – and perhaps even conclude a very brief period of correction.
We first return to the 4-hour chart, and see that we still have a basic double bottom-looking pattern with a bull divergence and a histogram about to cross over with a decent amount of momentum.
This is a basic bull setup that could easily result in a surge in the coming hours or day. Buyers have stepped in to defend Bitcoin under $9,500 reliably, in support from earlier in February, and the EMAs are stabilized here and mostly running sideways. What’s more, volume is getting pretty low which often precedes a larger move.
If we look at the daily, however, we have to keep the facts in mind, which are these: Bitcoin has lost its uptrend (black line); it closed yesterday with a bearish engulfing candle (engulfing the previous day’s bullish engulfing candle); and it closed two days below the 21 EMA.
We would likely need to see at least the 21 EMA retaken to have a chance of reversing what is in fact a downtrend/correction of some degree. The histogram here is pretty choppy, and doesn’t look like it can tell us anything useful. We should also note that Bitcoin has not even tested the .382 Fibonacci retracement level, and has barely tested an important inflection zone from 2019.
Finally, on the weekly chart, we quickly look at the indicators. First, we must note that the histogram looks plainly like it’s rolling over to the downside. This is a bit alarming, but many times in Bitcoin’s past it has shot out of such a profile within a bull market.
Next, we note that Bitcoin is now well above its historical ‘Bull Zone’ inflection area, which has held all Bitcoin corrections during bull markets – which this still technically is. The leading crypto has also barely tested the blue support zone.
All in all, Bitcoin may not be done with its present correction, but it is still solid in its HTF uptrend (excepting perhaps that histogram). If it isn’t, there is plenty of room below for support to come in.
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