Today (November 12), we are seeing another aggressive rejection for Bitcoin (BTC), after an attempt to reverse the current downtrend. The overall picture is mixed, however, with some bearish and bullish signs – and here we should not be ready to throw in the towel just yet and declare a bear market.
We start with a 4-hour chart, and see that BTC is still holding within the first major support band which comprised October resistance. Built from a few layers, this band has quite an extensive range of support – more than $400 – and plenty further down to go.
Within the last few hours, we can see that Bitcoin was sharply rejected at about $8,800, with the bears shutting down an attempt to end the short term downtrend. The RSI on this timeframe looks worrisome, with a previously bullish and auspicious profile rolling over. The histogram here is completely embattled, locked in the center of the range with no trend (with the MACD far on the negative side).
On the daily chart, we might say that Bitcoin looks a little less scary. We see the origin of the current support, and that it has a ways to go before being broken. We also see that the present support perfectly includes the “golden pocket” Fibonacci area, where traders are likely to step in with buying – and this area has not yet been tested.
Moving to the daily indicators (below), we see that the daily RSI trend is being tested again. This level was broken on October 25 briefly, before the dramatic surge/reversal that might have started a larger uptrend (we need confirmation of this now-ish). It would be a good time for support to show up.
The histogram here is trending down without a lot of conviction, and isn’t really looking scary yet; one good push could see it arching back up. However, by the same token, a little nudge down could see an increasing velocity in that direction.
Overall, Bitcoin is being dutifully suppressed by the bears. As we covered yesterday, some longer term indicators could start looking scary if we don’t see support step in this week. But the week is not over, and support is far from broken: Overall, the technical levels of a larger uptrend are still on the table. For now, market watchers wait.
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