After a week of increasingly docile Bitcoin (BTC) price action, squeezing into an ever tighter trading range, the leading crypto is starting to look interesting again. This is because Bitcoin has so far declined to complete its downleg back to the bottom of the range, starting around $9,500. And as we wait for a break one way or another after Bitcoin’s months-long consolidation, if it continues to stick to the top of the range, we might begin to anticipate that a break up - not down - will come.
Starting on the 4-hour chart, we see that buy support has come in at the familiar $10,000 zone. This has so far prevented the leading crypto from completing its typical leg down to the bottom of the larger consolidation range (see below).
The push has come out of a bullish falling wedge pattern on modest volume, and more will probably be needed to keep it at the top of the range. It has broken back through the 55 exponential moving average (EMA), which average has been an inflection point recently; holding this level now would be very bullish.
Looking at a daily chart, we see the larger consolidation pattern. This pattern is either a descending or symmetrical triangle, with descending triangles generally being considered bearish. It is basically too close to call, and probably doesn’t matter very much.
We see that Bitcoin has so far held in this leg down, at the 0.618-5 Fibonacci retracement level, and has even clawed its way back above the critical 33 EMA - an important average during the 2019 market. The theory here is that, if Bitcoin can be held above $10,000 and compressed into the top of the range, it may break up.
On the 3-day chart with MACD indicator, we get a full view of what’s going on. One way or another, consolidation is likely coming to an end. The histogram here has been stuck on the negative side of the range but is now trending up after having flattened, and we see higher lows diverging bullishly from price.
In general, an uptrend on Bitcoin still obtains which can support a slightly bullish bias in the long term. We will see in the coming days if Bitcoin starts favoring the top side of the pattern over the bottom side, and go from there.
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