Bitcoin Makes Solid Showing Above $10k, First Step Toward Holding - Price Analysis

  • Short term: position very tenuous, but a reversal up is possible
  • Long term: uptrend still intact, but rapid deterioration is possible if $9,400 is lost

Bitcoin’s (BTC) precipitous fall from $12,000, after a loud rejection there, seems to have been held around $10,000. As discussed yesterday, it is very important for the leading crypto to hold here, or at worst around $9,400; and the market seems to have responded with a chorus of support.

We start with a fairly clean daily chart. Yesterday’s (August 15) candle closed well above $10,000, after being bought up all the way from about $9,400. This was a very strong response, on high volume, and BTC was pushed back up all the way to the 55-day exponential moving average (EMA), at $10,400.

This is an auspicious daily closeBTC chart by Trading View

We could trade today in a narrow range between the 55 EMA and $10,000. Another close above $10,000 today would be positive, and a close above the 55 EMA would be auspicious. Losing $10,000 here would not be good, and imply another retest - and likely break - of $9,400.

A more detailed 12-hour chart shows Bitcoin’s movement through a descending parallel pattern (blue). We can see that the countermove back down has begun at time of writing, and there is a real danger that $10,000 could give way.

Failure here has grave consequencesBTC chart by Trading View

The bottom of this channel, all the way down near about $7,600, awaits Bitcoin if it cannot hold anywhere between $9,400-10,000. But a defense here would mean a higher low from the last trough, and would lay the first brick in a new medium term uptrend.

Moving to the 4-hour indicators, we see that the RSI is recovering well so far - but that it’s still too early to call a higher low. With so much selling on the latest candle, price could well blow through support shortly after time of writing.

RSI needs a higher lowBTC chart by Trading View

MACD/histogram (below) is still in deep negative territory after being kicked down from $12k. This moving average has a long way to go before it can get back into positive territory and signal any kind of uptrend.

The MACD is worrying hereBTC chart by Trading View

The histogram has, unfortunately, closed moments ago in a downward aspect, which may signal another reversal back down. Strength is needed now to follow up yesterday’s defense, and things could go badly in the next few hours if buyers do not show up.

In sum, Bitcoin needs some follow up to maintain its foothold above $10,000. This is an important moment - but yesterday’s strength during an even more important moment can give us some expectation that the leading crypto will hold.

The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect those of and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.