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Ever since Bitcoin (BTC) topped out at almost $14,000 for the local high, the cryptoasset markets have been pretty choppy. The largest altcoins all essentially capitulated to new local lows - and toward all-time-lows - and Bitcoin continues to bounce between $13-11,000.
But the high-timeframe (HTF) trend remains up for Bitcoin, and some altcoins have started to turn around. In this general long-term price review, we’ll look at OKEx’s token OKB, BTC, Litecoin (LTC) and Ethereum (ETH) to take the pulse of the markets.
The leading crypto is, to be plain, trending down in the short and possibly medium term. After falling out of a consolidation pattern, and bouncing off of a double top rejection, Bitcoin has flirted with the $8,000 zone in the last week, and is barely holding $10,000 at time of writing.
Looking at the 3-day, things do not look good for the prospect of maintaining above $10,000. Volume on the previous 3-day candle was not very impressive, showing little commitment for anything more than getting Bitcoin above $10k.
The RSI is trending constantly down with lower highs and lows. The MACD moving averages have crossed bearish, and are fanning out to the downside. The histogram at time of writing is ticking down hard; if it closes (tomorrow) in this aspect, it will be a very inauspicious sign indeed.
On the daily, we see that the bounce off the local lows has already fizzled. Volume did not come in after the counter-rally to $10,000, and a wick up to $11k was soundly rejected.
Price is battling the 55 exponential moving average (EMA). If it should close below this moving average, we could expect a revisit of $9,000 and perhaps lower.
But despite all this, the larger term uptrend remains intact. On the weekly chart, a number of factors point to support in the zone surrounding $8,000. The “CME gap,” discussed here, presumably represents support;
In addition, the 21-week EMA has historically held Bitcoin dips during uptrends - only after losing this level could we start to think that Bitcoin’s long term uptrend is broken. What’s more, Bitcoin has dipped as much as 40% during broad uptrends in the past - and we have not yet got even to this level.
In sum, it is not yet time to worry about Bitcoin’s 2019 uptrend - but for the remainder of the summer months, perhaps we could see a period of (healthy) correction down to $8,000, if this bearish price action keeps up.
After a considerable amount of time consolidating, OKEx’s proprietary exchange token is doing quite well - and trending up toward breakouts that could have it doing a lot better.
Looking first on the OKB/USD chart, we see a picture of health. On the 3-day chart, we see that OKB’s all-time high price is being tested in the low $2 area. Even if this level is not broken now (although it might be), the trend definitely looks set to break through soon.
Looking at the same chart’s indicators, we see a lot of chop. But the chop can probably be attributed to Bitcoin’s turbulence this month, rather than OKB’s performance (we will look at the OKB/BTC pairing below to reduce the noise).
All in all the indicators look okay. A worrying price divergence on the RSI has been broken during the latest candle, and the MACD has crossed up convincingly at time of writing.
On the daily OKB/BTC chart, we see some really promising price action. Price has already broken one important resistance level and is currently chewing through the next one. Consistently rising RSI, MACD, and histogram indicators have signaled support on the way up.
Again, the only sticking point may be the volume. All of this price rise has come on more or less declining volume. More buyers coming in will probably be needed to really get price going up. On the whole, OKB is looking very promising for some serious breakouts in the medium term.
Ethereum has led the altcoin space, as it usually does, into deep corrections across the board after the extremely bullish first half of 2019. And this hangover seems nowhere yet over.
Looking at Ether’s weekly USD chart, we see that ETH is in the midst of testing an important support level from late 2018, around $200.
And in fact, we see that a sharp selloff already blasted through $200 before being bought up last week. On the whole, it seems unlikely for this support to break, given its importance in ETH’s recent price history - but then, we have got used to altcoins breaking previously unthinkable support levels in the last couple of months.
Moving to the 3-day chart, we see very few indications that Ether’s retracement will end within this blue band of support.
ETH’s candle structure here looks dangerous if it closes (tomorrow) in this aspect. The RSI has shown no new support, and the histogram bars are even ticking down again after seeming to flatten at the time of writing - again, closing in this aspect would be bad. But there is an entire day left on this chart to remedy this bleak picture.
The counterargument to all this is ETH’s BTC pairing chart. Here, on the ETH/BTC daily, we see price ranging in thick support, on falling volume.
We see a clear bullish divergence on RSI, a MACD about to cross bullish, and histogram ticking back into positive territory. Overall, we see the makings of a bottom being put in - but this is nowhere yet confirmed.
At the moment, any Ether play would be very risky for short term trading. Long term cost-averaging, however, could be a viable strategy to employ.
During 2019, Litecoin was both the first to run, and first to retrace hard. After a 50% retrace from local highs, the crypto has been battling for support around the 21-week EMA.
Looking at the 3-day LTC/USD indicators, we see a muddled picture. Historically important support has held some sharp wicks to the downside, all exuberantly bought up. Support at $90 seems strong.
On the other hand, we see some nasty trends on the indicators that are hard to ignore. The RSI has not put in any higher lows on this medium timeframe (MTF) chart, and the histogram has begun ticking back down after seeming to start reversing. The MACD averages are fanned out to the downside.
These suggest that perhaps one last bounce down to thicker historical support at about $80 might be needed. This, despite LTC/BTC’s recent breakout from a downtrending price action: because if Bitcoin continues to retrace down, LTC/BTC can slowly gather strength even as LTC/USD tumbles back to local lows.
The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect those of CryptoGlobe.com and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.