Bitcoin Grazes $10,000 as Halving Looms — Price Analysis

  • LTF (Low timeframe) trend: We’re seeing some fatigue in the uptrend
  • MTF trend: The previous downtrend and structure is nearly smashed
  • HTF trend: We’re at the edge of starting a new uptrend

Just days before the Bitcoin (BTC) halving, the leading crypto is doing some pretty dramatic stuff. Namely, it is currently right on the cusp of breaking out – to the upside – of both the regional market structure, and a multi-year trendline.

We start on the daily, and see that Bitcoin has completely clear a significant resistance zone surrounding $9,000, and flipped it to support. While this is a strong development, and this zone can now function as support, there are some negative hints cropping up.

Looking good but risk of hidden bearishBTC chart by TradingView

For one thing, volume on major exchanges (like Bitstamp) is not growing on the current price surge, respective to the previous one about a week ago. What’s more, on the daily (and only the daily) we see the risk of a hidden bearish divergence if Bitcoin does not get above $10.5-ish.

The most important charts may be the longer timeframe charts, like the 3-day. Here, we see the entire regional market structure boxed; and what’s really important here is that Bitcoin has cleared the last typical hurdle at the 0.786 Fibonacci level. There is very little left to hold Bitcoin from a break of this level.

The structure is so close to breakingBTC chart by TradingView

And, very notably, if it does break out of this structure Bitcoin will also break out of a multi-year (with a “Y”) downtrend, drawn here as the diagonal red field. The implications of such a break now only a few hundred dollars away, are hard to overestimate.

Finally, down on the LTF chart, we see some definite bearish signals. Again, volume is not quite keeping up with price rise on Binance, and there is a bearish divergence coming in on the RSI. The histogram has also started pointing down.

Signs of fatigue on LTFBTC chart by TradingView

The good news is that $9,350 should function as decent support on a retest, and we might see a consolidation there before a move higher.

Whatever happens, this is surely a very dramatic moment for Bitcoin. The convergence of its price action, the halving just days away (along with a new record of hashrate as miners compete to get cheap Bitcoin while they can), and the low-inflation use case of Bitcoin emphasized by the potentially inflationary macroeconomic picture – all of these are making Bitcoin interesting to watch.

The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect those of CryptoGlobe.com and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

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