Bitcoin (BTC) has been churning through a resistance zone overnight, and pressure is building for a likely break up. If it does, the first clear sell targets start at around $7,700; around here, we will find the limits of the LTF uptrend.
Starting on the LTF 2-hour chart, we see that Bitcoin yesterday engaged the local resistance level at around $6,700. Pressure here has been steady overnight, and we see volume starting to tick up.
The indicators here look good, as well: the RSI trendline looks like it’s breaking, and the histogram is cautiously testing the positive side of its range after stabilizing on the downside. These are breakout signals that can easily translate into a leg up.
Going to the daily, we see that yesterday’s histogram closed with another solid tick up for a bullish contraction of the EMAs; although, this is a flat contraction with no acceleration. Price closed yesterday slightly above the 21 EMA, another sign in favor of continuation. Volume was slightly up for the day, as well (Bitstamp), and price is now trending wholly above the present support zone.
If we see a pop, the next resistance at about $7,700 is also currently being reinforced – like steel cable in concrete – by the 55 EMA. This will make a good sell target, and this area will start to test the limits of the LTF uptrend. As we covered yesterday, this area strikes near the ‘golden pocket’ within the MTF market structure.
The problem is that, breaking this MTF downtrend would also mean breaking a much larger structure that seems to be containing Bitcoin on a multi-year scale.
This is certainly not impossible, especially considering that Bitcoin is in unknown territory (what will it do in an economic crisis?); but we still have to remain cautious.
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