Bitcoin (BTC) is in a moment of calm after a season of furious movement: first up in the beginning of 2020, then way down amid the COVID-19 shock, and then violently back up on a relief pump. With all of that now behind, the leading crypto is struggling to find any trend or a clear market structure.
We can start on the daily chart to get a general idea of the market, and we see that the recent relief rally has not yet translated into a fuller uptrend; but it hasn’t written off that potential, either.
We see a progression of higher lows and highs on the RSI, but another new high is needed to keep this trend intact. The histogram profile, which was expanding bearish, has paused in this movement, although nothing much has materialized yet. Finally, we see a bullish engulfing candle on yesterday’s price, along with a close above the 8 EMA.
All of these are faint bullish signs, but there is not enough here to telegraph any strong continuation movement to the upside.
Moving to the 4-hour, things look a bit less good, as momentum looks to be rolling over to the downside on the histogram. There may, however, be a hidden bull divergence on recent RSI/price action.
Finally on a 3-day chart, we see what is perhaps the most likely HTF market structure: one of a grand consolidation based on multi-year trendlines.
Within this space, there are clear runways up to $9k and down to $5k, and either one coming first is entirely possible and just about equally probable at this point. The market is not signalling any particular selection between these scenarios, yet; although certainly, on HTF charts like the weekly, things look pretty bearish.
Bitcoin is in unknown waters though, and all bets are currently off as to what role it will take in the coming months and years after the COVID-19 economic hit.
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