After a week of bouncing from the sub-$4k dump a couple of weeks ago, Bitcoin (BTC) is looking rather weak on the MTF charts, but not terrible on the weekly timeframe. We would ultimately like to see a double bottom this week with some higher strength on the indicators, which may set us up decently for 2020 – but this seems like the best-case scenario.
We start on the weekly chart, and see that the critical nexus of support in the high $4k area has held pretty well, keeping Bitcoin within a very large, multi-year consolidation pattern. If we are able to stay in this pattern, we could see consolidation around here for the rest of 2020.
We see that the histogram’s bearish expansion may be starting to cool off. But the chart generally looks terrible, with the EMAs crossing bearish and the RSI well under the 50% mark. Some support is badly needed to stay in this pattern.
On the daily chart, things aren’t much better. Bitcoin closed yesterday under the 8 EMA after stiff selloffs all weekend, telegraphing a high likelihood of heading lower this week. The histogram momentum, last week looking lovely and building, very quickly sputtered after crossing the centerline: not a strong sign at all.
It’s looking like a double bottom (hopefully) is coming, and Bitcoin needs to hold somewhere above $4k. This would likely set us up well on the RSI with a bullish divergence, and may inaugurate a MTF reversal into an uptrend.
Seeking the decoupling…
Here's where we are in the timeline compared to the 2008 banking crisis.
Decoupling of safe havens from equities showing hints it may have begun (i.e. when BTC and Gold go bullish). We'll have more confirmation in a week. pic.twitter.com/rnCwKUgAJc
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) March 23, 2020
Futures markets of traditional equities are down at time of writing; and so, we could be in for another rocky week. Many are searching for a ‘decoupling’ of crypto from mainstream markets – but this surely has not come yet.
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