The crypto market has been generally downtrending for a while, hungover from the first half of the year’s considerable upside. But for the last few weeks, one star-performing midcap from 2017 has been bucking the trend in a big way. However, VeChain (VET) – one of the supply chain cryptos, promising guarantees of authentically produced goods – may now be getting overheated and is probably due for a pullback, if only temporarily.
We first look at the 2-day VET/USDT chart from Binance, and the first thing we can see is a prominent doji candle crowning the mountain that VET has built. We can also see that the RSI here is quite overbought.
Price has long left the EMAs behind on this chart, gaining 186% in 24 days. A strong uptrend still obtains until proven otherwise; but here, we have to start getting cautious; the 2-day is not the longest chart in the world, but it is still quite a feat to put such overbought conditions on 2-day indicators.
We should therefore be looking for the top of this movement up, and for that we should go to a lower timeframe like the 12-hour. And here, notably, there are almost no technical indications of weakness. Each local top has seen higher volume, most of it buy volume. Each top has also seen a higher RSI peak on this chart, and likewise on the histogram – although the latter has crossed bearish for the first time in a while.
Based on all this, it is quite possible that VET may continue this rally in the medium term at least. The uptrend has been powerful with no signs of flagging on the 12-hour.
If we shrink down to the 4-hour chart for the short term market, we finally find signs of cooling. Here, RSI is downtrending clearly – although, if price can hold the 21 EMA, this would start to look like hidden bull divergence.
In fact, the histogram looks like it’s arching up, and may have put in a higher low in what would be a very shallow correction. No strong selling has come in yet, even if it would be appropriate.
In sum, caution should probably be taken with VET, even if it still looks great. Some consolidation here seems likely, although if VET continues holding this level – and lets the averages catch up – it seems quite possible for another leg up to be in the cards.
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