Ethereum Searching for a Retracement Low, Not Getting One Yet - Price Analysis

  • Short term trend: Not much trend on USD chart, slight downtrending vs BTC
  • Long term trend: A larger uptrend is waiting to be confirmed with support

With Bitcoin (BTC) looking suspiciously like it wants to break out of its bull flag consolidation, it’s worth taking a look at our good friend Ethereum (ETH) to consider how it’s fixed for such a breakout. The broad picture of ETH is that it’s still clawing back up the chart after dropping to 2017-era lows on the ETH/BTC chart.

We start on the 3-day ETH/BTC chart, where we are seeing a fair amount of weakness on the indicators. Ethereum has been retracing for a few weeks after a solid showing in September, but we can imagine that some more time at this level may be necessary.

No strength hereETH chart by TradingView

The stochastic RSI is hurdling to the bottom of the range, indicating flagging strength. The histogram, meanwhile, looks ready to cross to the negative side; however, it is beginning to arch up faintly, suggesting that maybe it won’t spend too much time in the negative.

Taking a much more detailed look, on the daily, we see that Ethereum looks likely to get a bit more downside. The altcoin is stuck under downtrend EMAs, with the 21 about to cross under the 55. The RSI is stuck at the bottom of its range, and we see nothing suggesting strength yet. The histogram has been making lower lows since crossing bearish on October 10, and is actually arching down now -- suggesting still no upward momentum.

Doesn't seem like the bottom of the retraceETH chart by TradingView

What we might hope for here is another bottom in present local support zone with some sort of bull divergence put in on the indicators, but that may take some time.

Finally, looking at the 4-hour ETH/USD chart, we see that the leading altcoin is struggling to hold the $182-5 area, as it has been since the end of August. There are a lot of intense wicks on this chart lately, likely due to Bitcoin’s churning the waters. The altcoin is currently trading in a neat range between the 21 and 55 EMAs, with bulls and bears both fighting hard to drive it their respective ways -- and whenever it closes above or below one of these, we might have an inkling of a trend.

Tight rangeETH chart by TradingView

If Bitcoin moves again, we are likely to see ETH/USD move double in whichever direction that is. This is because, lately, ETH/BTC has generally moved with Bitcoin, not against it, doubling the effect on the USD side.

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