Bitcoin Running Out of Time, Unable to Retake Lost Ground - Price Analysis

  • Short term: sideways, no trend
  • Long term: general downtrend is likely

We’re now well into Week Two of Bitcoin’s (BTC) breakdown from consolidation around $10,000, and the leading crypto has been unable to claw back much lost price above $8,000. The momentum is already starting to swing back down from the relief rally, making another leg to the downside in the coming weeks more likely.

We start on the daily chart, where Bitcoin closed yesterday with some heavy selling into a doji candle. Price yesterday was held just at the 9 exponential moving average (EMA), and at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. So far, this is a shallow and weak push up into the retracement range.

Still held at 9 EMABTC chart by TradingView

The RSI is flat and even starting to point back down while still in oversold territory, although there is plenty of time left in the trading day. The histogram has stopped arcing up and is about flat. Closing the day in this aspect on both RSI and MACD/histogram would be less than encouraging for the hope that Bitcoin can retake any significant amount of loss ground.

Moving to the 8-hour, there is a mixed picture. The series of bull divergences on the RSI, put in starting September 24, didn’t result in any gains past $8,400, which is the current top of the range. But the RSI trend is still holding up on this chart.

A mixed 8-hour pictureBTC chart by TradingView

However, we have the histogram starting to roll over here, reflecting the flat histogram performance on the daily. We need another close or two to see if this rollover is going to continue and start showing up on a higher timeframe.

Finally, one level deeper to the 4-hour, we see falling volume on a low timeframe. Price seems to be responding to the 21 EMA, and the leading crypto is now barely hanging onto this average. Not closing above it on this next candle could spell trouble.

Bounce soon or elseBTC chart by TradingView

The histogram looks mostly flat on the decline, although the next couple of bars may change that.

Overall, we get a sense of weakness with Bitcoin. One longshot scenario for Bitcoin has been to have a dramatic counter-rally back up above critical levels in order to preserve a general 2019 uptrend. But that possibility has a short window of opportunity, which may already have slammed shut. The longer BTC stays flat here, the more it just looks like a bear flag consolidation for another break lower.

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