Ethereum Classic Surges on Atlantis Hard Fork Announcement - Price Analysis

  • Short term: retrace likely but another leg up seems a strong possibility
  • Long term: too soon to call a bottom here

Ethereum Classic (ETC) has exploded in the past three days, presumably due to an August 19 announcement that the Proof-of-Work-loving version of Ethereum will undergo a planned hard fork sometime in September. The upgrade, called “Atlantis,” implements some of the recent innovations from its parent Ethereum (ETH) chain.

This bump comes after a really rocky year for the altruistic altcoin: in 2018, ETC’s chain was 51% attacked, and its main development group ETCDEV shuttered doors due to lack of funding during the brutal 2018 bear market. Thus, the current price surge is probably welcomed by some beleaguered hodlers.

On the charts, we look first to the ETC/BTC daily to get the general picture. Price has surged more than 50% from August lows, and is hitting against a first big knot of resistance.

Hit first resistanceETC chart by TradingView

We see that the 55-day exponential moving average (EMA) cleanly broken through, and could serve as a retest point if sellers decide to take some profit here. About 30% up lies the next resistance level, and we can expect some profit taking there if ETC keeps going. The RSI has blasted through to the top side of its range, which it hasn’t seen on this chart since mid-June. The MACD is crossing over positive now, although the histogram is understandably downticking slightly after the initial surge.

Going to the weekly ETC/BTC chart (below) to get a wider view, we see just how much trouble the altcoin has had in the past year. The 33-week EMA here has marked the barrier for ETC, unable to close above it for more than a single week for a very long time. If the present rally continues, we might look at this level as a good sell target - and it is also nearly confluent with the next resistance level up.

Long term downtrend very much obtainsETC chart by TradingView

RSI here has blasted to about 42, which is a clear point of inflection on the weekly chart. The three possible scenarios here are: rejection at 42, brief penetration of 42, and flipping the level to support on a retest. The MACD is slowly moving toward the center, after a long period of extreme depression - so we cannot ask for much from ETC right away.

If we move finally to a lower timeframe (LTF) chart, the 4-hour ETC/BTC, we see that a pullback here looks likely. RSI is quite overbought, although the higher high accords with the higher price highs, and this suggests the possibility of more gains.

Small retrace likelyETC chart by TradingView

A successful retest of the July support, shown, would bode well for another trade opportunity. The “golden pocket” Fibonacci retracement zone lies just under this support, and anywhere from ₿0.00063-60 looks like a healthy buy target. The MACD is ticking down at an accelerating rate, and we should watch for stabilizing here in the coming days.

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