Bitcoin Trading In $300 Range as Trend Evaporates, Breakout Likely Soon - Price Analysis

  • Short term: breakout play up or down likely soon, no trend currently
  • Long term: uptrend still intact but that could change quickly if things go south

On the surface, Bitcoin (BTC) looks downright boring today, trading on low volume within a very narrow range. But in fact, the leading crypto has been squeezed into an extremely tight corner of a pattern, and volatility could swiftly return at any moment.

We start with a 6-hour chart, below, showing the 200 exponential moving average (EMA). This average has been an inflection point for Bitcoin’s price since mid-August (and even before). And on the August 26 fakeout out of this pattern, price was quickly sold back below the 200.

Breakout likely at any timeBTC chart by TradingView

The blue uptrend band is important, as it mostly corresponds to Bitcoin’s general uptrend for several months. Breaking below it, which is here a possibility, would have us looking at Bitcoin’s prospects for 2019 with concern. Finally, we see that a breakout would likely have an eventual target of about $11,200, where the larger structure’s downtrend line lies.

We can see on the above chart that volume is also squeezing into a diminishing point as a consolidation, corroborating the idea that price will break soon. Sort term indicators, such as on the 4-hour, are as listless and mute as price action is, and give us little material to estimate a breakout direction.

Instead, we might only grasp onto the larger trend, which is mostly still bullish but with some worrying signs. For example, on the 3-day chart below, we can see that the “fan” of EMAs has been unfurled since May of this year.

EMA fan could collapseBTC chart by TradingView

But dangerously, we see that the 9 EMA is at real risk of crossing over the 13 EMA. The same scare passed in late July, but the fan has been compressing since then.

Generally, this looks like a huge, 2.5-month bull flag, and this would suggest that BTC stays in its consolidation pattern. That would mean we would expect it to break up in the very near future, and have another attempt at the top of the larger pattern at $11.2k. That seems like about the best we have to go on at this time.

Hidden bull div, but plenty of lower highs tooBTC chart by TradingView

If we look at the 3-day indicators, trying to get anything we can, one can glean a hidden bullish divergence between now and June. This suggests that the general large uptrend will continue. Down on the MACD/histogram, we see that the MACD is careening back toward the centerline. But the histogram seems to have stabilized and is arcing up, and could form a higher low here.

None of this is enough to “predict” that price will break up in the coming hours or days. The larger uptrend is still intact, although definitely flagging. Perhaps the apathy in the markets will come to a close, as the summer months conclude.

The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect those of and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

Bitcoin Whale Reportedly Risks 800 BTC for $0.01 Payout in Dogecoin

A bitcoin whale has supposedly risked a total of 800 BTC, worth around $5.8 million, to help the cryptocurrency remain at the $7,200 mark in a bid to win a bet he made on social media.

A Twitter exchange between Dogecoin supporter Samu and bitcoin whale Joe007 shows that both agreed to bet on bitcoin’s future price, with Samu agreeing to pay 5 million DOGE (around $11,000) to the whale if BTC traded above $7,100, and the whale agreeing to pay Samu the same amount if it was below $7,100 at 13:00 UTC on December 12.

The BTC whale ended up winning the bet as the price of the flagship cryptocurrency didn’t drop below the agreed-upon mark. Some of those watching the thread, however, noted that something seemed to be going on before the bet’s deadline expired.

The bet was made according to the price of the Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange, and a trader soon alleged on social media the BTC whale could’ve placed an 800 bitcoin order to “defend” the $7,200 so the cryptocurrency’s price wouldn’t dip.

While it isn’t possible to tell whether Joe007 was the one behind the 800 BTC order, the whale seemed to warn Samu before the bet was made that he was extremely confident he was going to win, tweeting out “you really don’t want to make this bet, believe me…”

After the deadline the posts suggesting market manipulation came out so Samu said he “got revenge” on the bitcoin whale cheating, by offering to pay him only 6 DOGE, currently worth about $0.013.

The Dogecoin addresses Joe007 showed as the destination for the funds currently has little over 10,000 DOGE in it, worth close to $22. Some argued Samu should have paid the funds as no terms were defined in the bet, while others agreed with him.

Featured image via Unsplash.