Bitcoin Rejected at $12k After Strong Runup - Price Analysis

  • Short term: trend an open question on low timeframe, trade at own risk
  • Long term: uptrend very much intact, although some retracement could come

After looking like it might break market structure and begin a new uptrend, Bitcoin (BTC) was rejected around $12,000 last night (August 6) and sent back down for what is likely to be more consolidation.

Daily rejection at $12kBTC chart by TradingView

The final indication of a rejection, for now at least, came with yesterday’s daily candle close, which was rejected with intense selling soon after breaching $12,000 and closed below the mark. The market had no interest in supporting a breakout at this time - a breakout which would have been a complete departure from a falling parallel channel market structure.

For now, a line of support has formed at around $11,450. Zooming way into the 2-hour, we see that the 55 exponential moving average (EMA) level has held Bitcoin’s price action on the bottom side, so we may watch this level in the coming days.

Volume consolidationBTC chart by Trading View

Volume is rapidly consolidating here, suggesting a movement soon. It is possible that the formation just under $12,000 is something like a bull flag, and a further break up will actually crack the aforementioned structure.

Looking at the 4-hour chart and indicators, which are generally reliable for discerning swing trades, we look at the possibility of a bull flag.

Bull flag possible?BTC chart by Trading View

With volume looking to break out soon, we can consider this scenario. The RSI has stabilized after the rejection, and the histogram has flattened out and may even tick up when this candle closes. The MACD averages, after crossing down, are also starting to curl back up suggesting renewed strength. If nothing else, the market has not yet ruled out this possibility.

MACD curling up(source: TradingView.com)

On the other hand, if we lose this level just under $12,000 - and lose the chance for a breakout back above - we must then consider expectations for the inevitable downside action.

There are several levels in this pattern that could catch a Bitcoin retracement from $12k, and prevent it from falling all the way back to the very bottom of the channel - at $7,600.

The $10,600 level has been very important in the local market structure, and is a good bet that buyers will show up here. What’s more, this zone intersects with the 66 EMA - a very critical average on the 12-hour chart during 2019 - and a diagonal support level.

The retracement scenarioBTC chart by Trading View

Retracing to and holding $10,600 would be very positive for Bitcoin, as it would be a higher low in the local structure and signal a possible base for another attempt at $12k. Losing this level, however, would be rather negative and would probably result in the third retest of the support zone around $9,300. At least holding $10,000 would be a better result.

With volume looking to break soon, we should know soon which direction BTC will head next.

The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect those of CryptoGlobe.com and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

Crypto Scammers Responsible for $24 Million in Bitcoin Theft Through First Half of 2020: Report

Michael LaVere
  • New Whale Alert report shows crypto scammers have raked in $24 million in bitcoin through the first six months of 2020.
  • One scammer leveraged YouTube advertising to steal $130k in BTC per day. 

Crypto monitoring service Whale Alert has published a report showing that crypto scammers are responsible for $24 million in bitcoin theft through the first half of the year, including the exploitation of YouTube advertising. 

According to the report “Chasing Crypto Criminals” published July 10, cyber-thieves are finding easy prey in the form of bitcoin and other crypto-asset investors. Whale Alert summarized its exhaustive reviews of hundreds of websites and thousands of reports of theft as “crypto crime pays. A lot.” 

Whale Alert claimed there was little risk involved for crypto-based criminals, despite the massive economic impact being imposed on victims. The report confirmed at least $38 million in bitcoin alone being stolen via scams over the past four years, excluding the use of Ponzi schemes. 

The report reads, 

Some of the most successful scams made over $130,000 in a single day with nothing more than a one page website, a bitcoin address and a decent amount of YouTube advertising.

Whale Alert outlined another scam which brought in $1.5 million over six months through promoting a fake cryptocurrency exchange. The report claims the advertisement took victims to an “amateurish website riddled with spelling errors,” before tricking users into depositing their funds. 

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