On Monday (17 December 2018), Spencer Bogart, a partner at crypto-focused venture capital (VC) firm Blockchain Capital, said during an interview that this was a great time to buy Bitcoin (BTC), and proceeded to explain why.
Spencer made his comments about the crypto space in general and Bitcoin in particular during an interview with CNBC's "Fast Money" show, which is hosted by CNBC anchor Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders.
The segment with Spencer started by reminding the viewers that on that day one year ago (i.e. 17 December 2017), Bitcoin had reached its all-time high price ("almost $20,000"), and that the buying frenzy that we had late last year in the crypto markets led to experts making some very bullish predictions about the Bitcoin price. Melissa then reminded us of some of these predictions:
- Mike Novogratz on 27 November 2017: "Bitcoin could be at $40,000 at the end of 2018"
- Ari Paul (CIO at BlockTower Capital) on 26 December 2017: "We could easily see over $50,000 next year"
- Tom Lee (Head of Research at Fundstrat) on 9 January 2018: "We think it's going to be at least $20,000 by the middle of this year" (and on 5 July 2018, "We still think Bitcoin can reach $25,000 by the end of the year")
- Arthur Hayes (BitMEX CEO) on 14 May 2018: "$50,000 by the end of the year"
She also reminded Spencer that he had predicted on a previous appearance on 3 January 2018 that Bitcoin would reach $50,000 sometime during 2018.
Spencer started by explaining that at his VC firm, they take a long term view:
"Look, in general, at Blockchain Capital, we are long term venture investors. So, we are not really doing short term price targets. Could Bitcoin go to $50,000? Absolutely. ... How long will it take? I'm not sure."
Melissa then told Spencer that it was difficult to "believe the bull case from here" if we don't understand "what was wrong about that thesis that brought it to $20,000." Spencer replied:
"There's absolutely nothing wrong with the thesis. The problem is just that up until very recently Bitcoin has been a market that is almost entirely driven by retail, which is very unique, and what does that mean? Well, it means that in bull markets, we go a little bit too high, and in bear markets, we go too low. So, that's where we are right now. The reality is that the fundamentals have not changed. I mean, 2018 has been a fantastic year for Bitcoin. Ignore the price... This is the first year that we started to move to scale Bitcoin with the Lightning Network, where you can transact extremely quickly and extremely cheaply. And meanwhile, the institutionalization of the asset class and the ecosystem itself are really only getting stronger. I mean, we have seen endowments like Yale, Harvard, and MIT move into the space. We've seen Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange's sister company Bakkt start to move into the space with Bitcoin derivatives. We've seen qualified custodians move into the space. And lastly, probably the most encouraging thing, is the quality of the talent that we are seeing enter the space."
Finally, Melissa asked Spencer if we had already seen Bitcoin bottom and whether or not sometime in the future we would look back and say 'that was your buying opportunity'. Spencer answered:
"Look, I think it's a great buying opportunity right now. Could we go lower? Absolutely. Anywhere from here to $2,000 or $1,000 is just a fantastic buying opportunity. I think when we look back 24 months from now, even 12 months from now, we're going to say 'why didn't I buy then?'"
At press time, according to data from CryptoCompare, Bitcoin is trading at $3,767, up 7.71% in the past 24-hour period.
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