Willy Woo, a prominent cryptocurrency analyst, has recently revealed he believes that while we’re still going through a bear market, now is a good time to buy the flagship cryptocurrency as its price is “sitting comfortably under the 200 day moving average.”
Through a tweetstorm, Woo compared the cryptocurrency’s market cap against the daily transaction volume going through its network. A proportion between the two data points led to a Bitcoin Network-to-Value (NV) ratio. Per the analyst, when bitcoin’s cap and volume value separate, the market is bearish.
Currently, their separation is notably wide, taking into account their “historically tight correlation.”
This is the chart that NVT is based upon; the historically tight correlation between the value transmitted by the chain (network volume) and network value (market cap). The deviation we are going through right now are clues to how much of a bear market we are in. pic.twitter.com/pSC28oqxhF— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 26, 2018
Woo admitted that the launch of the Liquid Network, the “world’s first production bitcoin sidechain,” could be impacting the results as some bitcoin transaction may not be going through the cryptocurrency’s main chain, altering the results.
The analyst added that when it comes to payments per second going through the cryptocurrency’s main chain, we’re “roughly at the same levels of 2016,” although value transmitted has been flat for 6 months. In comparison, he added, it remained flat for 1.5 years after the 2014 crash.
According to Woo, “on-chain volume needs to climb in order to turn around the bear market.”
@PositiveCrypto's Network Momentum chart is another way to view this same data. We can see clearly in this view that on-chain volume needs to climb in order to turn around the bear market. (This is only a thesis based historical behaviour) pic.twitter.com/CSWflNYJwh— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 26, 2018
Despite the bear market, those who aren’t trying to time the market could now enter the crypto space, as BTC’s price is below its 200-day moving average. Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee has in the past argued the if BTC moves past its 200-day moving average, it may keep rising.
This as the flagship cryptocurrency’s price has historically risen in the six months after it moves past its 200-day moving average 80% of the time, while it has dropped 50% of the times it started trading below the indicator. Lee as notably been maintaining a $25,000 by year end price prediction throughout the bearish trend.
Per Woo, however, looking at the bigger picture of BTC as money has shown the cryptocurrency could “jump to cross $3T of USD M1 money supply” within the next eight years, as it went from $100,000 to $100 billion in a similar period.
Back to the bigger picture of Bitcoin as money. Here is Bitcoin's money supply next to the world reserve currency (USD). $100k->$100b took 8 years. According to this chart the jump to cross $3T of USD M1 money supply is well within possibility in the next 8. pic.twitter.com/ovq9KFmO1N— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 26, 2018
Bitcoin’s volatility has notably been declining. The analyst found that in 2016 it was on track to have similar volatility to the NZDUSD trading pair, although 2017’s bull run changed that. In the past few days, it has been trading within a tight range as its volatility has dropped significantly.