It’s a 'Matter of Time' Before Bitcoin Dips Below $6,000, Analyst Claims

Francisco Memoria

According to some traders, bitcoin’s mining costs saw it bottom out at the $6,000 mark as its months-long bearish trend supposedly came to an end. An analyst now argues it’s only a “matter of time” before the flagship cryptocurrency dips below said mark.

Through a blog post spotted by MarketWatch, Ziedins of CrackedMarket noted that while BTC has seen the $6,000 mark represent a firm support it bounced off of  numerous times in the past six months, every time it bounced it achieved a lower high.

Analysts usually see an asset in a bearish or at least neutral trend if it fails to achieve higher highs after bouncing off support levels. Ziedins stated:

First, we bounced to $17k. Then it was $12k. $10k came next. After that $8.5k. Earlier this month it was $7.5k and this weekend we stalled $6.8k. At this point, it is only a matter of time before we tumble under $6k support.

Bitcoin has been dropping since mid-December, after it hit an all-time high of nearly $20,000. This, despite numerous positive developments, which include the owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), launching a “global platform and ecosystem for digital assets” called Bakkt.

At press time, according to CryptoCompare data, bitcoin is trading at $6,450 after gaining 0.03% in the last 24-hour period. In the last 12 months, it’s still up by 65%.

BTC PRICE.png

Most other cryptocurrencies have also been struggling. The XRP token has lost 2% of its value in the last 24 hours and is trading at $0.51, while Ethereum’s ether slipped 0.3% to $211. A few altcoins like EOS and LTC are marginally up.

Bitcoin cash (BCH) is notably been pushing the market up after rising 18% to $523. Some analysts believe the cryptocurrency’s price has been rising after Bitmain, a large BCH investor, filed for an application to launch an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (SEHK).

While most cryptocurrencies are down so far this year, Wall Street analyst and bitcoin bull Tom Lee has earlier this month revealed he created an “altcoin correction index” that was at an all-time high. Per Lee, the last time it hit a new high, altcoins enjoyed a 7-week bull run.

Lee, the co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, has been maintaining a $25,000 by the end of the year bitcoin price prediction throughout the bearish trend. The analyst has in the past used historical evidence to argue hodling makes sense, as the cryptocurrency sees most of its gains in only a few days every year.

Tether Accounted for Over 80% of Bitcoin’s Trading Volume as its Premium Dropped

Tether’s USDT stablecoin has seemingly kept on dominating the cryptocurrency trading scene, as Bitcoin to USDT volumes have increased their market share from 70% in February to 81.7% of all BTC trading volume in March.

According to CryptoCompare’s March 2019 Exchange Review, Tether’ USDT has kept on dominating the stablecoin scene as well. This, as data shows 98.7% of Bitcoin’s trading volume against four top stablecoins – USDT, USDC, PAX, and TUSD – was represented by BTC/USDT trading pairs.

While BTC/USD trading pairs dominate the crypto-to-fiat trading volume, even these were dwarfed by BTC/USDT trading. While the monthly trading volume against the US dollar was of about 1 million BTC (around $5.2 billion) in March, against USDT the volume came close to 9 million BTC (nearly $47 billion at press time)

Bitcoin trading volume into fiat or stablecoinsSource: CryptoCompare Exchange Review

The stablecoin’s dominance even over fiat currency trading pairs may be related to a market share increase seen by pure crypto-to-crypto exchanges. These, according to CryptoCompare’s report, saw their volumes increase by 70% since February, to $267 billion. In contrast, exchanges offering fiat pairs saw their volume drop 8% to $58 billion in March.

It’s believed crypto-to-crypto exchanges are faster to see increased activity during market upswings, as cryptoasset capital inflows are faster and easier than fiat currency deposits on more regulated cryptocurrency exchanges.

While available data shows users could be showing increased confidence in Tether’s USDT, things may not be as clear. While several pieces of evidence have suggested the firm does have a dollar in reserve for every USDT in circulation, the company has quietly diluted its USD reserve claims in March.

CryptoCompare’s report shows that, interestingly, bitcoin to USDT trading has mostly grown on exchanges using the controversial Trans-Fee Mining (TFM) revenue model, which has been criticized as being a “disguised ICO.”

FCoin, one of the first cryptocurrency exchanges to adopt the TFM model, has seen its BTC/USDT trading volumes surges last month. CoinBene, as covered, has been the number one cryptocurrency exchange using the model, and seemingly led bitcoin to USDT volumes in March.

USDT trading volumes per cryptocurrency exchangeSource: CryptoCompare Exchange Review

Perhaps related to the increased volume on TFM exchanges is the increase in USDT premiums. Per the report earlier in March the premium got to 3%, meaning it cost an extra 3% to buy one bitcoin with USDT than with USD.

While the premium has since dropped to less than 0.5%, the rise may be traders factoring in the risk of trading in a stablecoin that has diluted its USD reserve claims, and on exchanges that incentivized larger trading volumes through a controversial revenue model.