Wall Street Analyst Uses Historical Evidence To Argue HODLING Bitcoin Makes Sense

Francisco Memoria
  • Bitcoin bull Tom Lee noted in his research that bitcoin investors see full-year gains in only nine days
  • Those who didn't hold onto their bitcoin in the top 10 performing days of the year from 2013 to 2017 lost 25 percent annually, he said.
  • Comparatively, those who missed out on the S&P 500 for its top 10 days were still in the green 5.4 percent a year.

Tom Lee, a known bitcoin bull and the only Wall street strategist covering the cryptocurrency, recently made an evidence-based cased for HODLING bitcoin long-term, as according to his research the flagship cryptocurrency sees its full-year gains in an average of only nine days.

According to CNBC, Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, sent a note to clients arguing that it makes sense to buy and hold bitcoin – colloquially known as HODLING – as the cryptocurrency sees most of its gains in only a few days each year.

He said:

"For instance, in 2017, a total of 12 days represent the full-year return of BTC."

Tom Lee

Traditionally it’s a good move for investors to buy and hold stocks, rather than trying to time trades in an attempt to maximize gains. While holding is often the best strategy in a market whose analysis dates back to 1954, it’s unclear if the same is true for the highly volatile, nearly decade-old cryptocurrency market.

Lee said that if an investor didn’t hold stocks through the 10 best days for the S&P 500 each year, the annualized return would drop to 5.4 percent from 9.2 percent. Comparatively, those who didn’t hold onto bitcoin in its top 10 days in the past few years would have lost 25 percent annually, from 2013 to 2017.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $7,900, after falling from an all-time high of over $19,000 in mid-December, according to data from CryptoCompare. While its down by more than 40 percent for the year so far, Lee’s firm seems to believe patience is the key.

The note said:

"We think investors should be patient buyers of BTC here.”

Tom Lee

Tom Lee is known for having a bullish stance on bitcoin. As covered, he created a “Bitcoin Misery Index” earlier this month that showed now is a good time to buy the cryptocurrency. Last month, the Wall Street strategist argued bitcoin will see new highs in July, after using historical data to analyze the cryptocurrency’s recovery periods.

 His latest prediction even saw bitcoin hit $91,000 by March 2020, after updating his previous prediction of $51,000 in 2022. The majority of cryptocurrencies in circulation, he noted, will suffer a “significant shakeout.”