In a recent interview on the YouTube series Altcoin Daily, Quant Analyst Ben Cowen gave a surprising prediction for Litecoin’s price during its upcoming halving (expected around 1 August 2023).
Litecoin’s Halving and Price Performance
Litecoin’s halving, a process that reduces the rewards for mining the cryptocurrency by half, is a significant event that has historically impacted its price. Cowen pointed out that Litecoin tends to rally in the first half of its halving year but then fades as the halving approaches. This pattern was observed in the two previous halvings in 2015 and 2019, both of which took place in August.
Cowen noted that Litecoin has been following this pattern in 2023, rallying in the first half of the year. However, he warned that if Litecoin follows its historical trend, it could experience a “blow off top Wick” type event, similar to what happened in 2015 and 2019, and then fade as the halving approaches.
Litecoin as a Short-Term Investment
Despite the potential for short-term gains, Cowen cautioned that Litecoin might not be the best long-term investment. He pointed out that Litecoin has historically underperformed compared to “blue chip” cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This is evident in the Litecoin-Bitcoin and Litecoin-Ethereum charts, which show a clear downward trend over the past several years.
However, Cowen did acknowledge that Litecoin could be a good short-term play during certain points in the market cycle, particularly in its halving year. He also noted that Litecoin’s value proposition of being four times faster and cheaper than Bitcoin could attract some investors.
Litecoin’s Price Prediction
When asked about his price prediction for Litecoin, Cowen was cautious, but mentioned that it could reach up to $140 before the next halving. He noted that it’s risky to chase Litecoin at this point, especially considering that it usually tops out in June or July. However, he did provide a range for his price prediction. If Bitcoin reaches $100,000 in five years, Cowen suspects that Litecoin could be in the $500 to $1,000 range. But if Bitcoin doesn’t reach $100,000, Litecoin’s price could be significantly lower.
In addition to Litecoin, Cowen also discussed other cryptocurrencies. He noted that the narrative in the crypto market is constantly changing, with different cryptocurrencies taking the spotlight at different times. He also mentioned that the question of whether certain cryptocurrencies are securities could be another narrative driving price movements.