Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to churn in the last couple of weeks, and has finally reached a more-or-less flatline at roughly $9200. Volatility and volume are now extremely low – and this is historically a harbinger of a large price movement. What’s more, Bitcoin has still not made an extremely important decision about which way the charts will go, riding under multi-year resistance.
On the daily chart, we see that volume has been most concentrated around $9200 since May. We also see that price has been repeatedly rejected under the thick downtrending resistance zone.
On the weekly chart, we can see the larger implication of this moment, as any large price movement will execute either Option 1 or Option 2. Option 1 entails a breakout from multiyear resistance; obviously a big deal.
The histogram here looks like it is building up a bullish expansion, as well. This suggests that price might eventually break up, although we are talking about just one indicator.
Bitcoin historical volatility (HV) nearing 40$BTC volatility this low has historically led to major price action between 30% to 60% movement in the following weeks
From current price:
30% move to the upside is $12,200
30% move to the downside is $6,500
Put your seatbelt on pic.twitter.com/ERzWudn547
— Josh Rager 📈 (@Josh_Rager) July 12, 2020
Popular crypto analyst Josh Rager points out, and charts, that such periods of Bitcoin calm do usually procede moves between 30-60% (whether up or down), according to a custom tool called the ‘Bitcoin historical volitility’ indicator.
💥Boom .. all time high bitcoin difficulty: 17345948872516.06 pic.twitter.com/yMHLPYh9sw
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) July 13, 2020
Adding to the tension of the moment is Bitcoin’s mining difficulty, which just reached its highest level ever at 17.34 terahashes/second.
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