Crypto analyst Adam Cochran has posted a massive, 109-part tweetstorm (more easily readable here) outlining his bullish thesis as the Ethereum (ETH) 2.0 switch approaches. This update will launch the very long-anticipated switch from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake protocol to guard the Ethereum network.
Cochran, in a herculean feat, manually audited 10,000 Ethereum address in order to assay what’s going on with its network, and where the money is flowing. His takeaways are broken down into 32 separate items; however, we can be a bit more concise.
So I guess we can call that conclusions:
Finding #4 – ETH2.0 will likely initially return 12%-17%+
That's the tweet. pic.twitter.com/pIU4M7RzCM
— Adam Cochran (@AdamScochran) April 29, 2020
At first glance it seems like Ethereum’s supply is very centralized and, thus, dangerously subject to control and, thus, a cause for bearishness.
Cochran fires back that much of that centralized stash is actually held in massive smart contracts, which exist because of actual decentralized finance use cases that Ethereum is servicing. Factoring in this, Ethereum is almost exactly as centralized as Bitcoin, with about 56-57% of ETH/BTC going to the top 10,000 wallets.
Going on, he finds that, after compensating for wallets that are more than likely dead or lost, and for ETH wallets that are unlikely to stake their coins, Cochran estimates that initial yields on Ethereum staking could garner a juicy 12-17% per year dividend.
People are apparently noticing Ethereum’s value, as Cochran also highlights the growing number of ETH “whales”, or owners of significant amount of coins. And not a lot of that is even being offered for sale on exchanges, with only 58% of the ETH listed only on exchanges for sale.
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