Investor Gary Shilling Is Staying Away From BTC Over Its Lack of ‘Transparency’

Francisco Memoria

Gary Shilling, a well-known investor, has recently called bitcoin a ‘black box’ and added that he won’t invest in bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, as he is “very suspicious of things that are not transparent” and, as such, won’t invest in it.

During an interview with Business Insider, the financial analyst revealed he recently met with a friend who’s a venture capitalist in the US who was “very early on [in bitcoin]” and through made a lot of money.

At a cocktail party, Shilling revealed, he asked his friend to explain what bitcoin is, and that he was given an answer revolving around its underlying blockchain technology and its limit supply. When he asked the venture capitalist about “the guys behind this” he was told that no one knows exactly who’s behind the cryptocurrency.

It’s known that someone, under the Satoshi Nakamoto pseudonym, submitted the Bitcoin whitepaper to a mailing list little over 10 years ago. Who was behind the pseudonym isn’t clear, although various journalistic investigations have pointed towards various directions.

Taking this into account, Shilling compared the cryptocurrency ecosystem to the South Sea bubble – one of history’s biggest bubbles created by false claims. He noted a book written by Charles MacKay describing the bubble reveals someone put an ad on a paper at the claiming it was a “great discovery” and a “wonderful investment” but didn’t add any details.

Shilling went on to describe an exit scam, as the person behind the ad grabbed everyone else’s money and left to “never be heard of again.” Using this story, the investor added:

I’m just very suspicious of things that are not transparent. If I can’t understand it I don’t want to invest in it.

The investor’s words notably come after bitcoin and the cryptocurrency ecosystem endured a year-long bearish trend, that saw BTC drop from a near $20,000 all-time high to about $3,900 at press time. The MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 100 Index, a market cap-weighted index that tracks the 100 largest cryptos, notably dropped 84.6% in the last 12 months.

As for what’s I store for the future, not all analysts are bearish. As covered, Chinese analysts have recently argued BTC may not yet make a comeback this year, although they expect it to get back on track in “3 to 5 years.”

Juan M. Villaverde, a crypto-focused econometrician and mathematician at Weiss Cryptocurrency Ratings, has recently forecasted that although 2018 was a “disaster” for cryptocurrency prices, it was also a year of “major progress.” Per his words, BTC will again “rise up and head for new all-time highs.”

Bitcoin Veteran Peter Todd: Reducing Bitcoin’s Block Size to 300KB Is a “Dumb Idea”

Peter ToDD.png

Peter Todd is a Bitcoin veteran. Describing himself as an Applied Cryptography Consultant, Peter has been interested in digital money ever since he read Adam Back’s seminal Hashcash paper as a teenager. Having spent a lot of time himself thinking about how to create a digital currency - when the bitcoin paper was released in 2009, Peter realized that the solution had been found.

Formerly a Bitcoin Core developer, Peter has emerged as one of the most prominent voices in the space, regularly providing a more technically-based commentary to the changing winds of the crypto scene.

Short, sharp and to the point, Peter answered a few of my questions about bitcoin, crypto more broadly, and what the future holds for the industry.

Avi Rosten: How did you get into crypto?

Peter Todd: Via the Freenet Project, back in highschool. Like any good civics/democracy minded high schooler would be, I believed in freedom of speech and Freenet was an obvious way to promote that.

AR: What are some of the developments in the crypto space in the past couple of years that you find most interesting?

PT: Lightning is probably the biggest one. Monero and Zcash second, although remember that "interesting" doesn't necessarily mean "good".

AR: What do you think about recent talk by some Bitcoin Core developers around reducing Bitcoin's block size?

PT:  Some? I think you mean basically just one, Luke. I think it's a dumb idea that's a mere tweak at high cost.

(Peter explained a little more expansively in this interview for the WhatBitcoinDid Podcast why he doesn’t like small block sizes: “I think his technical arguments for that are good, but I think he doesn’t understand the social side of that, which essentially makes it impossible.")

AR: When the bitcoin block reward eventually goes to 0, will mining fees act as enough of an incentive?

PT: Maybe? Maybe not? It'd certainly have been less risky to have some small perpetual inflation, or at least a Monero-like "tail emission"

AR: What do you think of the Lightning network? Will it enable bitcoin to become a widely-used medium of exchange?

PT: How widely used is widely used? Bitcoin is already a fairly widely-used medium of exchange amongst use-cases that need it - lots of services and people at risk of censorship use it, from Patreon alternatives to file hosting sites.

If you're talking about replacing credit cards and the like, it'll probably never happen.

AR: Do you think Bitcoin should incorporate some privacy features or do you think it would make Bitcoin less useful as financial regulators might then treat it as a privacy coin e.g. Japan's FSA's order to exchanges not to deal with privacy coins?

PT: From a purely technical perspective most of what people think of as "privacy features" are risky to implement, with a high chance of a bug leading to the destruction of the entire system. Monero has already had one inflation bug, and Zcash has had two (including the one caught just prior to initial release).

On the other hand, Bitcoin already has many onchain privacy features, ranging  from the UTXO model to various technical things that make Lightning possible. And on the second layer, having at least some level of privacy isn't just a feature, it's mandatory: without decent privacy you can't get scaling, as to scale you have to make transaction data less widely distributed.

AR: What do you think of the two most recent implementations of the MimbleWimble protocol (Beam and Grin)? If the community decided that Bitcoin needed to have these privacy features, what do you think would be the best way to implement them?

PT: I just don't see that happening for another 5-10 years. These protocols are just too new to trust for something as valuable as the entire Bitcoin system. Better to adopt them as additional layers, as Liquid has done.

AR: If you wanted to work with smart contracts, which of the existing platforms would you use? Ethereum, EOS, TRON, Rootstock (RSK) ...?

PT: They're all bad. Their idea of smart contracts doesn't make much sense for most applications. Lightning is currently the best example of a smart contract system in production, and the on-chain scripts it uses are trivial.

There's very little reason to have complex on-chain smart contract schemes.

AR: What’s your biggest criticism of Ethereum?

PT: See the previous question.

It's just not a model that makes much sense.

AR: How do you think crypto news and media could improve?

I'd say get more competent journalists and give them more time and resources to write articles. But realistically, where's the money to do that going to come from?