Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, has seen its price drop from a near $20,000 all-time high late last year in one of the worst bear markets the crypto ecosystem has seen. A seasonality chart now shows it’s possible it may surge in the last quarter of this year.
According to MarketWatch, a chart from Element Digital Asset Management shows that bitcoin’s returns in the fourth quarter of most years have been impressive, as the cryptocurrency only saw its value drop in Q4 of 2014 since 2013.
The chart shows that, near the end of September, the cryptocurrency has historically started surging until the end of the year, so much so that in 2015, 2016, and 2017 there were a total of 14 days where it dropped in the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin is, however, a very young currency and its short life means the sample used to make the chart if small. Element’s portfolio director, Thejas Nalva, and the firm’s director of quantitative research Kevin Lu wrote:
Given that cryptocurrency markets are highly reliant on human sentiment and are rarely anchored to some sort of fundamental value, it’s not unreasonable to explore whether there is some sort of seasonality that exists.
Per MarketWatch bitcoin bull Tom Lee, the co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, has also pointed out that using the seasonalities of altcoins HODLERs may see some returns in the fourth quarter of this year.
In a note sent to clients earlier this month, Lee noted that “given the overhang from SEC actions” and the “potential backlash from Washington” over cryptocurrencies like the Venezuelan Petro, mid-September is a “more correct window” for the altcoin rally.
Bitcoin, according to CryptoCompare data, is currently trading at about $6,500 after rising 0.8% in the last 24-hour period. The cryptocurrency bounced after falling shortly after a mysterious whale sent over $100 million worth of BTC to exchanges.
Lee, as CryptoGlobe covered, has maintained a $25,000 by the end of the year bitcoin price prediction during the bear market. For his prediction to come true the cryptocurrency would have to rise 300% in a few months, which isn’t absurd taking into account last year’s Q4 rally of nearly 200%.
Despite the bullish signs, analysts warn crypto investors should proceed with caution as bitcoin’s young age means the end of year rallies could be merely coincidental and history can be used to tell stories. As Element pointed out, when BTC started dropped earlier this year some claimed the cause was the Chinese New Year.
The story was that Chinese investors, who have historically had an outsized impact on the market, withdrew capital from the cryptocurrency market for expenses and gifts related to the major Chinese holiday.
Even if bitcoin’s price tanks in the coming months, various investors still believe cryptocurrencies are here to stay in the long run. As covered, billionaire investor Tim Draper recently claimed the cryptocurrency ecosystem’s market cap will hit $80 trillion in 15 years.
Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz noted that he believes we “put in a low” last week, before cryptocurrency prices started to recover. Binance’s CEO, Changpeng Zhao, claimed a “1,000x cryptocurrency price growth” is “definitely possible,” while disagreeing with Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.