Luke Gromen, a seasoned macro analyst, has voiced a stark prognosis for the United States’ fiscal future, suggesting that the government is approaching a juncture where it must choose between expanding the money supply or facing a default on its debt.
Gromen is an expert in global financial research with over twenty years of industry experience. He is celebrated for his ability to interlink isolated industry events and craft narratives that provide investors with a comprehensive understanding of the macroeconomic landscape. His research, known for its depth and insight, draws from a plethora of sources to shed light on global economic trends.
Founding FFTT, LLC in 2014, Luke aimed to exploit the growing compartmentalization of market analysis by harnessing his acclaimed skill in ‘connecting the dots.’ FFTT offers institutions and discerning investors an unconventional synthesis of macroeconomic and sector trends, pinpointing nascent investment opportunities.
Previously, Luke was a cornerstone at Cleveland Research Company and a partner at Midwest Research, where he honed his skills in equity research and sales. He holds a BBA from the University of Cincinnati, an MBA from Case Western Reserve University, and earned his CFA designation in 2003, cementing his status as a financial authority.
In a conversation with Peter McCormack on the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast, Gromen laid out a scenario where the US, grappling with reduced productivity and escalating costs, will likely resort to quantitative easing (QE) as the lesser of two evils. He argues that the notion of balancing the budget by reducing public entitlements is a non-starter, both politically and practically. Similarly, he dismisses the idea of cutting defense spending as even more implausible. With these options off the table, he posits that the government will have no choice but to “print the money.”
According to a report by The Daily Hodl, Gromen said:
“People say] they’re just going to have cut entitlements. It’s not going to happen. It’s not going to happen, in my opinion. So then what’s left? Print the money, do the QE (quantitative easing). Slash defense? They’re not slashing defense. All that’s left is [printing money]…
“They’re not going to cut the entitlements, they’re going to print the money, and they’re going to print the money with oil at $90 or $84 or wherever it is, and they’re going to print the money with Bitcoin at $35,000. They’re going to print the money.“
Gromen’s perspective is that the political landscape makes it virtually impossible to reduce entitlements, and with defense spending being sacrosanct, the government will proceed with money printing, regardless of the price of oil or Bitcoin’s valuation. He acknowledges the potential consequences of such actions, including significant inflation that could mirror the economic conditions experienced by countries like Argentina.
Last month, during an interview on the Blockworks Macro YouTube channel, Gromen touched on the implications of continued QE and a possible shift in Federal Reserve policies. He suggested that such a financial environment would be conducive to the growth of certain assets, including gold, oil, and Bitcoin (BTC).
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