BitMEX, a leading crypto derivatives exchange, has expanded its offerings to include Prediction Markets. This feature allows traders to speculate on the outcomes of various real-world scenarios, including the financial recovery of bankrupt crypto projects and the potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs.

According to a blog post by BitMEX published earlier today, Prediction Markets are a new trading instrument on BitMEX that allows users to speculate on the outcomes of specific events in multiple sectors, including cryptocurrency and traditional finance. These markets also offer risk-hedging opportunities. The addition aims to provide a more risk-averse trading environment for specific, bounded outcomes.

As of September 13, BitMEX offers three Prediction Markets contracts:

  • P_FTXZ26: Focuses on the recovery rate of customer claims related to FTX. The contract is set to expire on December 25, 2026, at 20:00 UTC.
  • P_XBTETF: Centers on the U.S. SEC’s potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF. The contract will conclude on October 27, 2023, at 20:00 UTC.
  • P_SBFJAILZ26: Allows speculation on whether Sam Bankman-Fried will receive a jail sentence. The contract will end on December 25, 2026, at 20:00 UTC.

Prediction Markets on BitMEX operate similarly to existing futures contracts but with some differences:

  • Contracts are priced based on the Last Price.
  • Leverage is not available.
  • Margin and settlements occur in Tether (USDT).
  • Payouts are bounded between 0 and 100.
  • Maker fees are set at 0.00%, and taker fees at 0.25%.
  • Early settlement is possible if the event occurs before the contract’s expiry.
  • The service is restricted in certain jurisdictions.

Each contract has a value between zero and one USD and is quoted in percentage terms. BitMEX’s team reviews all contracts to ensure clear definitions of outcomes. Settlements are conducted in USDT.

The initial set of Prediction Markets contracts became available on September 13 at 03:00 UTC.

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