Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder and former CEO of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, has warned that he believes a massive cryptocurrency price correction is coming, but noted that after it there could be a sustained bull run he is “super bullish” about.
During an interview on the Crypto Banter show, Hayes said that the flagship cryptocurrency Bitcoin and other risk assets are likely to undergo a massive correction in the near future as a massive amount of liquidity exits the market.
In a recent blog post, Hayes noted that the U.S. is expected to raise its debt ceiling this year and issue $1.1 to $1.2 trillion in Treasury bonds to fund the 2023 USG Federal Deficit, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates would be around those figures.
In his post, Hayes noted that as the Treasury sells off debt, the Federal Reserve remains committed to reducing its holdings in U.S. Treasuries by $100 billion per month, which he says poses a threat to risky assets as it drains the market of significant liquidity.
Per his words, the Treasury’s flood of debt into the market, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s mixed messaging, has created an environment of uncertainty and caution for investors. Hayes advised his readers to monitor the market closely and be prepared to act quickly.
He said that the Treasury General Account (TGA) is an important indicator to watch, as it will signal when the government has fully drawn down its cash balance and is nearing the debt ceiling.
In his recent interview with Crypt Banter, Hayes said that Bitcoin hasn’t truly escaped its correlation with global risk assets, and he believes it’s in store for a “correlation one” moment, meaning that “everything goes down massively together, Bitcoin included.”
While the CEO of BitMEX acknowledged the potential for the cryptocurrency to break the $20,000 mark, he believes that a further decline is likely. Nevertheless, he remains optimistic about the long-term potential of Bitcoin, particularly in light of the response from monetary and fiscal authorities during times of economic distress.
He believes that in the event of another economic downturn, governments will inject money into the economy and print more currency, which could further drive up the value of Bitcoin. After that, Hayes says that Bitcoin and Ethereum will maintain their upward momentum, before alternative cryptocurrencies go “vertical.”
This sector of the cryptocurrency industry is known for its volatile fluctuations, which can lead to both significant gains and losses for investors. To navigate this unpredictable terrain, the CEO emphasizes the importance of understanding its cyclical nature, as he says these assets tend to follow a pattern of “waves,” with BTC and ETH leading the charge before stalling, and giving way to an altcoin rally.
Eventually, these lesser-known cryptocurrencies also experience a correction, and the cycle begins again with renewed interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum.