Even though Bitcoin's price has been quite volatile during the COVID-19 crisis, Michael Novogratz, a former Goldman Sachs partner, as well as Founder, Chairman, and CEO of crypto-focused merchant bank Galaxy Digital, believes that 2020 will Bitcoin's year.
World Health Organization (WHO) says that the first time it heard about a COVID-19 case was on 31 December 2019 when "the WHO China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China"
According to data from CryptoCompare, Bitcoin started the year at $7,189, reached $10,360 (its highest price this year) on February 14, fell to as low as $4,240 (its lowest price this year) on March 13, and is currently (as of 09:30 UTC on March 23) hovering around the $5,800 level:
This means that in the year-to-date (YTD) period, Bitcoin has lost 19.32% of its value. This has naturally disappointed those Bitcoiners who were expecting the flagship cryptocurrency, which many of its fans refer to as "digital gold", to serve as a better store of value. By comparison, during the same period, the price of physical gold has gone from $1,519 to $1,491, i.e. a loss of only 1.84%.
Although before the COVID-19 outbreak many people had claimed that Bitcoin was a non-correlated financial asset, during this pandemic, Bitcoin has shown a high degree of correlation with the S&P 500 Index, which has fallen 28.66% in the YTD period:
Crypto startup Santiment, which focuses on behavior analytics, commented on this correlation on March 20:
With #Bitcoin’s correlation with the #SP500 currently at a 2-year high, we have just released an in-depth research article into what we can collectively learn in regard to this unprecendented downturn among both markets.https://t.co/LZnfqYHdzS— Santiment (@santimentfeed) March 20, 2020
1) #BTC's correlation with the pic.twitter.com/RRLtaU5UVY
traditional equity markets appears cyclical, moving from negative to positive historically. With this pandemic, we are obviously seeing very similar movements in tandem as the #coronavirus justifiably has investors in virtually every sector in a similar state of cautiousness. pic.twitter.com/Y2WZKEkBsb— Santiment (@santimentfeed) March 20, 2020
2) Over the course of $BTC's history, when correlation is high with the #SP500, it typically is accompanied with major downturns in #crypto. In other words, the #1 market cap coin performs best when it has very little movement dependent on traditional markets.— Santiment (@santimentfeed) March 20, 2020
3) Any subsequent bounce-backs over time are typically foreshadowed by a growing ‘decoupling’ between $BTC and the S&P. We should see a clear sign of an impending uptrend when this correlation line is beginning to approach 0 (or lower) again.— Santiment (@santimentfeed) March 20, 2020
Although Novogratz's confidence in Bitcoin seemed low on March 13 when he tweeted that "global confidence in just about anything" (including Bitcoin) had "evaporated", Bitcoin's 36.79% bounce back since then -- i.e. from $4,240 to $5,800 -- seems to have renewed his confidence in Bitcoin because on Sunday (March 22), he sent out the following tweet:
$btc will continue to be volatile over the next few months but the macro backdrop is WHY it was created. This will be and needs to be BTC’s year.— Michael Novogratz (@novogratz) March 22, 2020
Perhaps the most interesting reply to Novogratz's tweet was from Bill Barhydt, the Founder and CEO of crypto startup Abra:
I should clarify... it's highly possible we go to $3k before $100k. I'm not an oracle and don't play one on TV either.— Bill Barhydt (@billbarhydt) March 23, 2020
Crypto analyst/trader Willy Woo also seems to think that once Bitcoin has found its bottom (i.e. once we have seen capitulation), it will "moon":
Dump then moon. We are undergoing flight to safety right now, BTC is looking for its bottom. But know that once the bottom is in there are strong bullish pressures ahead. It's this economic environment in the years ahead that Bitcoin was built for. https://t.co/ILn3aXTJXG— Willy Woo (@woonomic) March 18, 2020
Then, earlier today, Woo said that decoupling of safe haven assets such as Bitcoin and gold may have already begun:
Seeking the decoupling...— Willy Woo (@woonomic) March 23, 2020
Here's where we are in the timeline compared to the 2008 banking crisis.
Decoupling of safe havens from equities showing hints it may have begun (i.e. when BTC and Gold go bullish). We'll have more confirmation in a week. pic.twitter.com/rnCwKUgAJc
Flight to safety 101:— Willy Woo (@woonomic) March 23, 2020
1) Traders exit risk-on leveraged positions and sit in USD. Retail investors sell to USD for runway (hard times ahead). All assets crash against USD.
2) After peak fear, best assets for hedging the times ahead rise in value (Gold 2008, Gold & BTC 2020)
Crypto influencer Ran Neuner appeared bullish about the outlook for Bitcoin earlier today after watching an interview with Neel Kashkari, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, aired last night on American TV (CBS) news program "60 Minutes", during which Kashkari said there is "an infinite amount of cash" at the Federal Reserve (America's central bank):
Look, they made an ad for Bitcoin. https://t.co/XPu4i3TQOS— Ran NeuNer (@cryptomanran) March 23, 2020
Update on 23 March 2020 at 13:15 UTC:
At 12:00 UTC, the Federal Reserve issued a press release to announce what several influencers in the crypto space are referring to as "Quantitiative Easing Infinity":
Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy: https://t.co/k5T0cvNFdm— Federal Reserve (@federalreserve) March 23, 2020
These were two the key parts of the press release:
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will purchase Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy.
Establishment of two facilities to support credit to large employers – the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF) for new bond and loan issuance and the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) to provide liquidity for outstanding corporate bonds.
This was the reaction by Anthony Pompliano (aka "Pomp"), Co-founder and Partner at Morgan Creek Digital:
Remember the $700B program the Fed announced to buy Treasuries & mortgage-backed securities last Sunday?— Pomp 🌪 (@APompliano) March 23, 2020
Remember how it was supposed to be the BIG solution?
Well they just announced they are increasing the $700 billion target to "unlimited" and will buy any type of bonds now.
The US stock market has welcomed the news, with the S&P 500 futures currently up 55.75 (or 2.44%) in premarket trading.
As for Bitcoin, although it was trading below $6K before the Fed's announcement, it is currently trading at $6,318, up 3.4% in the past 24-hour period: