On Monday (February 10), Thomas Lee, Co-Founder, Managing Partner, and Head of Research at independent research boutique Fundstrat Global Advisors, while appearing as a guest on CNBC's "Power Lunch" program, gave us his thoughts on Bitcoin.
Here's what Lee said:
"A lot of good things have happened with Bitcoin this year. One is that [Bitcoin's block reward] halvening is happening in May, but we broke above the 200-day [moving average] -- so back in a bull market. There is the corona risk and geopolitical tensions and I think last year Washington killed the Bitcoin rally but with the elections it's sort of not in the purview of Washington.
"So, I think Bitcoin could rally very strongly from here."
One of the co-anchors, Kelly Evans, then said that he wanted Lee to say how strong this rally would be and when we should expect it.
"When Bitcoin breaks above its 200-day, which it did about two weeks ago, it's averaged six-month gain is about 190%. So, this would point to all-time high sometime this year."
Evans then asked Lee which would reach 30,000 first, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (aka "the Dow") or Bitcoin.
"Yeah, well, my guess would be Dow, but if I had to say, you know, what is first to 40,000, I would pick the Dow."
Obviously, Lee meant to say Bitcoin instead of the Dow in the second part of his comment.
So, later, on Twitter, Lee corrected himself:
Dow to $30k. #bitcoin to $40k— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) February 10, 2020
"Yeah, 2020 should be great for Bitcoin because you got number one the halvening happening -- the block reward for miners getting cut in half -- that's a good supply demand change.
"I think last year the White House killed the Bitcoin rally with their opposition, but with the presidential election cycle underway, it's not gonna be in the headlines, and that's bullish for Bitcoin.
"And then with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, I think that's good for crypto... We're getting a lot more interest in it from our clients."
As for Bitcoin's remarks about Bitcoin breaking the 200-day moving average, what he was referring to is that, historically, whenever the Bitcoin price breaks above its 200-day moving average, the "win-rate" (over the next six months) increases to 80%, and means that Bitcoin is "re-entering" bullet market territory:
Bitcoin moved back above its 200-day moving average on 1/27... positive milestone and reinforcing 2020 shaping up to be great year for $BTC #bitcoin— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) January 29, 2020
- whenever BTC >200D, win-rate (6M forward) jumps to 80% and essentially "re-entering" bull market (>200D)#BTD #bestasset2020 pic.twitter.com/YbpQYHpLaj