This article provides: an overview of how Bitcoin (BTC) has been doing over the past 24-hour period; a recap of interesting recent news that might have affected its price (or might do so in the future), and useful observations from Crypto Twitter.
Bitcoin Price Drop
According to data from CryptoCompare, since October 14, the Bitcoin price has been trading in the range $7,900–$8,400, as can be seen in the two-week price chart shown below:
Bitcoin started the day (October 23) at $8,035. The price hovered around the $8,000 mark until around 12:20 UTC, when it started to tumble.
One thing worth pointing out is that roughly 30 minutes before this fall started, various technical analysts where saying that 60-day volatility "had hit the lowest levels since April 1."
One well-known crypto trader, Josh Rager, predicted yesterday that "not only Bollinger bands but also historical volatility (HV)" were suggesting that "a major move" was coming:
$BTC Volatility— Josh Rager 📈 (@Josh_Rager) October 22, 2019
As you can see with not only Bollinger bands but also historical volatility (HV) that a major move is brewing
With a slow sideways market, we'll see descending HV that indicates a strong reaction in price action ahead and rise in volatility pic.twitter.com/kee1IkjKBB
Within one hour, the BTC price dropped from $7,982 to $7,488, i.e. a loss of almost $500 (or 6.18%), going below $7,500 for the first time since May 18:
Rager now says that the Bitcoin price could fall further to around $7,200:
If buyers weren't interested in $7800 Bitcoin, they're likely not interested in $7500 prices— Josh Rager 📈 (@Josh_Rager) October 23, 2019
It likely goes lower w/ confluence support at $7200 & below
Even after a natural bounce there, it comes down to where large/agressive buyers are interested
Take it level by level
According to data from Rek.to, during the past 24-hour period, over $242 million worth of XBTUSD perpetual contracts have been liquidated.
Panic Selling by Large Bitcoin Miners Using Bitmain's Antminer S9?
Around 13:40 UTC, i.e. about one hour and 20 minutes after the BTC dump started, Dovey Wan, a Founding Partner at Primitive Ventures, sent out the following tweet to warn that there were rumors that some large miners who are using Bitmain's very popular Antminer S9 may have already started panic selling:
As far as I know, all S9 miners are panically selling RIGHT AWAY as they are very close to break even point— Dovey Wan 🗝 🦖 (@DoveyWan) October 23, 2019
And S9 is over 50% of the hashrate https://t.co/a6TX45Voln
When asked how she knew that the Antminer S9 was responsible for over 50% of Bitcoin's hashrate, she replied:
Piecing together info from friends who are the top pool owners and local mega farms owners. No public source available— Dovey Wan 🗝 🦖 (@DoveyWan) October 23, 2019
You can triangle from newly delivered non-S9 machines counts too
Next Year's Bitcoin Halving Event
Regarding next year's Bitcoin halving event, which is estimated to take place around 13 May 2020, around one hour before the BTC dump, Tuur Demeester, a Founding Partner at Adamant Capital, said that he believed that in order for Bitcoin to remain around the $8K level, we would need to have "$100M in net positive demand required per week" until the laving event, and he explained how he came to that conclusion:
For BTC to retain its current price at $8,000 until the May 2020 halving, we'd arguably need to see net positive demand of $2.88B before then. That's what's required to buy up all newly minted BTC at $8k in next 200 days.— Tuur Demeester (@TuurDemeester) October 23, 2019
Calculation: 144 blocks/day × 12.5 btc/block × $8,000 × 200 days— Tuur Demeester (@TuurDemeester) October 23, 2019
So that's $100M in net positive demand required per week.— Tuur Demeester (@TuurDemeester) October 23, 2019
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