Bitcoin Could Have a '7% Probability' of Reaching $20,000 by Year End, Data Suggests

Will Heasman

According to data relayed by cryptocurrency analytics company, Skew, despite bullish calls to the contrary, bitcoin (BTC) may not surpass its previous all-time high of $20,000 before the end of 2019. 

The company tweeted out a graph that plotted the probability of BTC surpassing its all-time high. Surprisingly, regardless of bitcoin’s impressive 170% year-to-date rally, as well as some positive long-term market sentiment, Skew's data derived from options placed bitcoin’s chances of reaching $20,000 before the year’s end at a mere 7%, noting that this was “gradually eroding with the passage of time.”

However, it appears the bulls haven’t thrown in the towel just yet, as sentiment behind bitcoin’s price point seems to be growing. Back in July, speaking on an episode of the Unchained Podcast Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, opined that BTC was on a trajectory to hit $42,000 by the end of 2019 as long as its historical compound annual growth rate perseveres:

It’s right on the trend line, I think it’s a good shot that by the end of the year, we hit [$42,000], and then if you just extrapolate that line out for another year, it’s $122,000 per Bitcoin and in one more year $356,000.

Set Your Sights on October

Interestingly, Skew highlighted October as the “most interesting month for bitcoin,” citing the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) final decision deadline for two prominent Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) proposals.

Earlier in August, the SEC took the decision to delay three ETF decisions from several asset managers, one from VanEck/SolidX, another from Bitwise Asset Management and one more from Wilshire Phoenix. As with many other cryptoasset ETF proposals, the three were heavily scrutinized with the regulator citing concerns pertaining to market manipulation, and market surveillance.

Both VanEck and Bitwise have attempted to ally the SEC’s fears, with the latter going as far as publishing several reports on the ‘true’ nature of the bitcoin market, suggesting that 95% of the market’s volume is faked, alluding the remaining 5% of which is highly regulated and efficient.

What About Bakkt?

ETF proposals aside, next month holds another reason to be bullish on bitcoin according to some analysts, with the official launch of Bakkt’s physically delivered bitcoin futures.

Bakkt, the subsidiary of the world-renowned Intercontinental exchange positions itself to be an all-in-one institutional-grade cryptoasset ecosystem, which could prove to be a major on-ramp for the quasi-holy grail of the cryptocurrency industry: institutional investment.

Shortly after Bakkt received the regulatory green light earlier this month, CEO, Kelly Loeffler, noted the importance of regulatory compliance when capturing in institutional attention:

This offers customers unprecedented regulatory clarity and security alongside a regulated, globally accessible exchange in a market underserved by institutional-grade infrastructure.