Cryptocurrency traders have so far seemingly showed little confidence in bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, climbing back to $10,000 this year, according to data from analytics firm Skew, which tracks bitcoin futures and options data.
Per its founder, Emmanuel Goh, bitcoin options trading volumes have doubled since the beginning of the year and are now seeing $10 million traded a day. Options let investors bet on whether the price of BTC will reach a specific level in a set point in time, and current data shows traders aren’t betting on a 2019 bull rally.
Per Goh, they’re putting a 5% change – 4 delta – on BTC hitting $10,000 by September. He told MarketWatch:
We have a $10k September expiry, which is currently priced with a 5 delta.
According to the news outlet, there’s a $20,000 call option expiring within three months. These options give their holders the right – but no the obligation – to buy their underlying asset at a specific price by a specific time.
Per Goh, this trade was likely a “bullish trade that was made last year when investors were still discussing the short-term possibility of making new highs.” According to options traders, the probability of bitcoin trading at $20,000 in three months is essentially zero.
Notably, bitcoin’s price has been recovering since it hit a low of about $3,200 in December of last year. The year-long bear market that saw it drop from a near $20,000 all-time high to said low seems to be over, although the recovery has been slow.
At press time, bitcoin is trading close to the $4,100 mark, as it’s down by 0.3% in the last 24-hour period. The flagship cryptocurrency’s market cap is at $72.2 billion.
While Goh noted that options trades above the $10,000 have seen “little action of late,” he did note one large trade can trigger “a lot more trading” as trading could scramble to hedge bets they’ve placed.