Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s most dominant cryptocurrency, is currently on track to record a green monthly candle for the first time in over 6 months.
Josh Rager, a widely-followed cryptocurrency trader, argued via Twitter that if the bitcoin price manages to remain above $3,413 for the rest of this month, then BTC could potentially record a green monthly candle. In the last two months, since setting a 12-month low at $3,122, bitcoin’s price has recovered by approximately 15%. BTC is currently trading at $3,746.69 according to CryptoCompare data.
$BTC Monthly Chart— Josh Rager 📈 (@Josh_Rager) February 16, 2019
Bitcoin is working on its first green monthly candle since July 2018
The past 6 months Bitcoin has seen red on monthly, a break and close below $3413 will continue the red monthly trend pic.twitter.com/RLLi5N02BB
The bitcoin price must stay above the $3,500 mark by the end of this month in order to record a net positive in February 2019. Since January 11th, 2019, bitcoin has been trading in a relatively tight range between $3,300 and $3,700 - as the digital asset has not been able to register any large price changes above or below key support levels.
On-Chain Transaction Volume Changes Could Affect Price
According to several crypto analysts, bitcoin could begin to recover by the second half of this year - which is when technical indicators for BTC are expected to start pointing toward a surge in the price of the cryptocurrency. Other fundamental developments such as changes in the on-chain transaction volume could also lead to a potential increase in bitcoin price.
In mid-December 2018, Mark Dow, a former International Monetary Fund (IMF) economist, had argued that if BTC does not recover soon, then it would be susceptible to trading at even lower prices. Dow had remarked:
If bitcoin can’t bounce to at least $5k – $6k soon, it’s a really bad sign for the cyberbulls. And if it breaks down thru the yellow line at any point, even the HODLers need to GTFO.
Bitcoin Price May Decline Further If It Can't Break Out Of Tight Range
If bitcoin can achieve its first green monthly candle since July 2018, then it might lead to positive price movements in the near-term, analysts have argued. However, if bitcoin continues to trade in the mid-$3,000 to $3,700 range for a few more weeks, then it would be a sign that BTC price has stabilized (due to low volatility).
According to Twitter user Hsaka (@HsakaTrades), bitcoin price might drop further (from current levels) if it remains in the $3,500 to $3,700 range. He noted (via Twitter):
Haven't the slightest as to which way this expands. A right proper stalemate as of now, wicks on both sides without any follow through of either. If I was hard-pressed, I'd say I'm leaning towards more downside.
$BTC— Hsaka (@HsakaTrades) February 15, 2019
Haven't the slightest as to which way this expands.
A right proper stalemate as of now, wicks on both sides without any follow through of either.
If I was hard-pressed, I'd say I'm leaning towards more downside.
Currently short LTC. pic.twitter.com/3BKbK30ljl
Although the bitcoin price has not recorded any large price movements (in recent weeks), several altcoins, including ERC-20 compliant tokens, have registered substantial gains against BTC and the USD. Binance Coin (BNB), the native utility token used by the crypto exchange Binance, recently recorded over a 50% price increase (from around $6 to just over $9) in a span of two weeks - following reports that Binance managed to remain profitable even during the current bear market.