Mike Novogratz, the CEO of Galaxy Digital, recently shared his insights on Bitcoin’s potential for reaching new all-time highs (ATH), emphasizing that significant changes in macroeconomic conditions are necessary for such a milestone. In a recent interview on Galaxy’s podcast, the billionaire — who is the 1368th richest person in the world with a net worth of $2.5 billion (as of 18 May 2024), according to Forbes — conveyed his belief that Bitcoin will likely maintain its current trading range until the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, which he sees as a bullish signal for the leading cryptocurrency.
Novogratz highlighted that more favorable crypto regulations could also propel Bitcoin to new ATHs. He observed that the prevailing narrative about an economic slowdown could benefit Bitcoin. However, he remains skeptical that Bitcoin will surpass its previous high of $73,000 without intervention from the Fed or a major regulatory breakthrough—both of which he considers unlikely in the near term.
He outlined his expectation that Bitcoin will trade within a range of $55,000 to $75,000, more specifically between $57,000 and $73,000. Novogratz believes that both the low and high ends of this range have been established, and he predicts an upward movement as the election approaches and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell might consider rate cuts.
Additionally, Novogratz pointed to the substantial US federal government spending and increasing debt as factors that could drive more investors towards Bitcoin, viewing it as “digital gold.” He mentioned that while crypto regulation and national debt are conflicting factors, the latter might actually support Bitcoin’s rise.
He argued that if either the Biden or Trump administration tackled the federal budget deficit—which currently stands at 26% of GDP, significantly above the target of 20%—it would not bode well for Bitcoin. Conversely, he noted that poor policymaking and excessive government spending could be beneficial for Bitcoin’s value, paralleling the rise in gold prices but at a faster pace due to Bitcoin’s status as a newer technology and commodity.
Willy Woo, a respected figure in the cryptocurrency community, is renowned for his data-driven market analyses and predictive insights. Founder of The Bitcoin Forecast newsletter, Woo transitioned to the crypto space in 2013 and brings a wealth of traditional finance and trading experience. He is particularly noted for his on-chain analysis and the development of tools like the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market cap to transaction volume, akin to the price-earnings ratio in stocks.
On 15 May 2024, Woo posted a notable insight on the social media platform X, stating that global liquidity is forming a bullish ascending triangle, with an expected breakout before October 2024. Later that day, he elaborated on this by specifying the components of global liquidity he was analyzing, which include the M2 Money Stock for CNY, USD, EUR, JPY, and GBP. He provided a detailed formula for tracking this liquidity using Trading View tickers.
To understand Woo’s analysis, understanding what M2 represents in economics is essential. M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes a broad set of liquid assets. It consists of M1 (physical currency, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits) and additional forms of near money such as savings deposits, small-time deposits (CDs under $100,000), and retail money market mutual funds. M2 provides a more comprehensive view of the money supply than M1 alone, making it a crucial indicator for economists and policymakers.
By examining the M2 money stock for major global currencies—Chinese Yuan (CNY), US Dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), and British Pound (GBP)—Woo assesses the overall liquidity in the global economy. His Trading View formula incorporates the M2 money stock for each currency, adjusted by their exchange rates to the USD, and aggregates them to provide a unified measure of global liquidity.
Woo mentions the concept of a “bullish ascending triangle,” a technical analysis pattern indicating a potential upward breakout. This pattern is characterized by a series of higher lows that form a rising trendline, converging with a horizontal resistance line. When the price breaks above the resistance line, it typically signals a strong bullish trend. Woo’s expectation of a breakout before October 2024 suggests he anticipates significant increases in global liquidity, which could propel Bitcoin prices higher.
Woo’s forecast that Bitcoin 2025 will be one for the record books implies that he expects these liquidity conditions to create a highly favorable environment for Bitcoin, potentially leading to unprecedented price levels.
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