In a video published on January 19, 2024, by Kevin Svenson on his YouTube channel, “Kevin Svenson Crypto,” the popular crypto analyst discusses BItcoin’s price action.

Current Bitcoin Market Analysis

  • Recent Price Action: Svenson notes that Bitcoin hasn’t seen lower lows since the beginning of December, indicating a relatively stable price action over the past month and a half.
  • Spot ETF Approval and Its Impact: Post spot ETF approval, Bitcoin experienced some downside price action, but Svenson views this as a temporary phase.
  • Critical Price Levels: He identifies $40,200 as a crucial level for Bitcoin. A drop below this could lead to a retest of the oversold levels on the daily chart.
  • Bearish Scenario: Svenson says that if Bitcoin breaks below $40,200, it could drop around 13% to a target of $35,000, reaching oversold levels. However, Svenson believes any dip will be met with strong demand due to positive fundamental factors.
  • Pre-Halving Dips as Opportunities: He emphasizes that dips before Bitcoin halving events have historically been excellent buying opportunities, as prices post-halving tend not to revisit these lower levels.

Relation to S&P 500

  • S&P 500 Leading Indicator: Svenson observes a pattern where Bitcoin follows the S&P 500 in breaking all-time highs. He notes that the S&P 500 is currently near its all-time high, which is a positive sign for Bitcoin.
  • Historical Correlation: He points out that during the second Bitcoin halving, the S&P 500 broke its all-time high about seven months before Bitcoin did. Similarly, during the third halving, this gap was about four months.
  • Prediction Based on S&P 500: Given the S&P 500’s position, Svenson predicts that Bitcoin could reach its all-time high within a few months, possibly in about four months.

Investment Strategy

  • Approach to Dips: Svenson suggests that any current or upcoming dips should be seen as buying opportunities, with limited downside.
  • Strategy Pre-Halving: He advises against selling in the hope of buying back lower. Instead, he recommends holding onto Bitcoin and adding to positions if there’s a dip.
  • Overall Market Outlook: Svenson expresses confidence in the market, particularly if the S&P 500 breaks its all-time high, indicating bullish momentum for Bitcoin.

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