Jan van Eck, the CEO of global asset manager VanEck, appeared on CNBC’s “The Exchange” with Kelly Evans on 15 December 2023 to share his thoughts on Bitcoin.
Key Points Discussed:
- VanEck’s Early Adoption of Bitcoin: Van Eck highlighted that VanEck was among the first established ETF players to file for a Bitcoin-related ETF back in 2017. His personal interest in Bitcoin was piqued by its potential as a store of value, drawing parallels with gold, which has been a traditional focus for VanEck.
- Bitcoin’s Growth and Comparison to Gold: Van Eck observed that Bitcoin has shown remarkable growth, increasing in value significantly since 2017. He likened Bitcoin’s behavior to gold, serving as a store of value. Despite skepticism, he emphasized Bitcoin’s resilience and growth, comparing its evolution to the rapid development seen in parts of China over the past decades.
- Challenges and Network Effects: Addressing concerns about Bitcoin, including regulatory risks and its use in illicit activities, Van Eck pointed out the widespread adoption of Bitcoin, with its user base now numbering around 50 million. He argued that this network effect makes it unlikely for any new form of internet-based store of value to surpass Bitcoin.
- Outlook for 2024 and Interest Rates Influence: Van Eck discussed the macroeconomic factors influencing Bitcoin and gold, particularly their relationship with interest rates. He predicted that with interest rates trending downwards, the macro environment for both Bitcoin and gold appears strong. He also noted the similarities in their performance patterns.
- Bitcoin ETF Approval and Expectations: Van Eck shared his expectations regarding the SEC’s approach to approving spot Bitcoin ETFs. He anticipates a simultaneous approval process for multiple firms, similar to what occurred with Ethereum futures, to ensure no single entity gains an unfair advantage.
- Bitcoin’s Future Performance: Van Eck expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s future performance, predicting that it would reach new all-time highs in the next 12 months. He attributed this optimism to Bitcoin’s maturation and an upcoming halving event (in April 2024), which historically has been beneficial for its value.
On 7 December 2023, VanEck unveiled a series of predictions for the 2024 cryptocurrency market in a thread on social media platform X. These insights cover a range of topics, from market trends and technological developments to regulatory shifts.
US Recession and Bitcoin ETFs: VanEck anticipates a US recession coinciding with the debut of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs. They expect an influx of over $2.4 billion into these ETFs in the first quarter of 2024, potentially driving up Bitcoin’s value.
Bitcoin Halving and Price Prediction: The company predicts a smooth transition through Bitcoin’s fourth halving in 2024, leading to a subsequent price increase, particularly benefiting miners with lower operational costs. VanEck also projects Bitcoin to reach a record high in the last quarter of 2024, influenced by political and regulatory developments post-US presidential election.
Ethereum’s Market Outlook: While Ethereum is not expected to overtake Bitcoin in market dominance in 2024, VanEck foresees it outperforming major tech stocks. However, Ethereum’s market share might face competition from other smart contract platforms.
Ethereum Layer 2 and EIP-4844: Following the implementation of EIP-4844, VanEck predicts a dominance of Ethereum Layer 2 solutions in EVM-compatible Total Value Locked (TVL) and trading volume.
NFT Market and Spot Trading Shifts: A resurgence in the NFT market is anticipated, with Ethereum leading and Bitcoin gaining ground through the Ordinals protocol. VanEck also expects a shift in spot trading leadership, with Binance potentially losing its top spot to competitors like OKX, Bybit, Coinbase, and Bitget.
Stablecoin and DEX Market Trends: The stablecoin market cap is projected to surpass $200 billion, with USDC reversing its market share losses. Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs) are expected to achieve record highs in spot trading market share, propelled by fast blockchains like Solana.
Blockchain in Various Sectors: VanEck foresees increased blockchain usage in remittances, with Bitcoin Staking on the Lightning Network offering yield opportunities. In blockchain gaming, a game might exceed 1 million daily players, with Immutable X showing promise in market cap rankings. Solana is projected to rise as a top 3 blockchain in market cap, TVL, and user base, potentially surpassing Chainlink.
Emerging Trends and Corporate Crypto Holdings: The adoption of networks like Hivemapper and Helium is anticipated, providing cost-effective alternatives to traditional infrastructure. New accounting standards are expected to encourage corporate crypto holdings, with Coinbase potentially reporting significant Layer 2 revenue.
DeFi Applications and KYC Compliance: KYC-compliant DeFi applications are predicted to outperform non-KYC ones, potentially increasing Uniswap’s token value.
VanEck clarifies that these projections are illustrative, reflecting the views of the author(s) at VanEck as of the posting date, and are subject to change. They emphasize that these insights are not investment recommendations and should not prompt investment-related actions.
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