Most people in the crypto community seem to believe that in early January 2024, the U.S. SEC will approve one or more spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, what is less clear is what will happen to the price of Bitcoin should any of these ETFs get the green light.
Below is what some of the most popular crypto influencers are saying. As you can see, the vast majority seem to believe that the SEC’s approval of at least one spot Bitcoin ETF has not been fully priced in.
Samson Mow recently shared his perspective on the current valuation of Bitcoin, suggesting that the market has not yet accounted for several significant factors. According to Mow, the anticipated ETF approvals, the upcoming Bitcoin halving, increased adoption by various nation-states, the likelihood of renewed quantitative easing, the multiplier effect, and the Veblen effect are all elements that have yet to be reflected in Bitcoin’s price. He emphasizes the unique impact of these factors converging simultaneously on the value of Bitcoin.
Kyle Chassé believes that the excitement seen in Bitcoin’s price over the past month does not fully encapsulate the impact of a potential ETF approval. Chassé argues that such an approval could trigger the most significant supply shock the market has seen, with trillions of dollars potentially moving to purchase Bitcoin. He advises investors to be mindful of this opportunity and not to miss out.
Austin Barack commented on the anticipated Bitcoin ETF, comparing it to the halving events of Bitcoin. He pointed out a recurring pattern where people often assume such events are already factored into Bitcoin’s price, but in his view, this is not the case.
Michaël van de Poppe anticipates that the approval of a spot ETF might limit Bitcoin’s price growth in the short term, potentially reaching a peak between $48,000 and $52,000. Following this, he expects a period of more stable and range-bound price movement, leading up to a new all-time high towards the end of 2024.
Alistair Milne expressed his view that several key factors influencing Bitcoin’s value have not yet been incorporated into its current market price. These factors include the potential approval of ETFs, the upcoming Bitcoin halving, changes in interest rates and quantitative easing, record levels of conviction and holding among investors, increasing adoption of Bitcoin by nations and multinational corporations, and a surge in global mainstream interest in Bitcoin.
VanEck adviser Gabor Gurbacs believes that the impact might be overestimated initially, with perhaps only a few hundred million dollars flowing in, much of which might be recycled money. However, in the long term, he thinks the influence of spot Bitcoin ETFs is likely underestimated. Drawing parallels with gold, Gurbacs suggests that historical trends in gold investment could be informative.
He also points out that while immediate developments often receive a lot of attention, the broader, long-term implications of Bitcoin, especially in shaping its own capital markets and financial products, are not fully appreciated in the current market valuation. Gurbacs emphasizes that the focus shouldn’t just be on traditional financial entities like BlackRock adopting Bitcoin but on which Bitcoin company could emerge as a major player like BlackRock in the future.
Bloomberg Intelligence’s two most prominent ETF analysts, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, mostly agree with Gurbacs’ analysis.
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