In a recent article by CoinDesk, financial analysts shared differing views on how the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, would respond if a spot exchange-traded Fund (ETF) receives approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the future.
As reported by CoinDesk, analysts from K33 Research observed that Bitcoin’s price rapidly climbed 7% to $30,000 from just below $28,000 within eight minutes following false news of a spot ETF approval. These analysts suggested that an actual ETF approval would likely cause an even more significant market movement, while its rejection could have the opposite effect.
CoinDesk also covered comments from Alex Krüger, co-founder of Asgard Markets, who stated that this market reaction indicated that the full impact of an ETF approval is yet to be incorporated into Bitcoin’s current price. According to Krüger, an actual approval could lead to a 20% surge in Bitcoin’s price within a day.
CoinDesk reported that Joe Consorti and Nik Bhatia, contributors to The Bitcoin Layer newsletter, had a different take. They argued that the recent price hike was rather insignificant and that much of the anticipated market reaction to an actual ETF approval is already factored into Bitcoin’s existing price. The duo further cautioned that Bitcoin remains a volatile asset, particularly in light of potential interest rate increases.
According to Enigma Securities, as mentioned by CoinDesk, the market’s keen attention to a potential Bitcoin spot ETF approval indicates its significance as a positive catalyst for Bitcoin. Joe Edwards, Enigma’s head of research, noted that while there’s a pent-up demand for such an ETF, an actual approval could lead to a short-lived price spike followed by a decline.
Edwards also conveyed that the genuine market benefits of a Bitcoin ETF would unfold over a more extended period—about five years—rather than causing a momentary market disruption.
As for the chances, there is perhaps more optimism now than ever that we are close to seeing the SEC approve a spot Bitcoin ETF, if not before the end of this year, then before the end of Q1 2024:
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