Fred Thiel, Chairman and CEO at Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA), expressed his optimism in a recent interview with Decrypt regarding the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Here’s a breakdown of what Thiel shared with Decrypt:

  1. Thiel’s Optimism About Bitcoin ETF Approval: Thiel refrained from giving specific odds but conveyed a strong belief that the chances of the SEC approving a spot Bitcoin ETF are better than fifty-fifty. He cited the efforts of major players like BlackRock in pursuing this goal as evidence of a high degree of certainty that approval could be achieved.
  2. Current Applications and Market Players: There are approximately half a dozen applications for the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF, which would directly track the price of Bitcoin. This would simplify the process for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without needing to buy and store the cryptocurrency themselves. Among the hopefuls for the Bitcoin ETF are BlackRock, Wisdom Tree, VanEck, and Fidelity.
  3. Thiel’s Perspective on Multiple Approvals: Thiel expressed his view that if one Bitcoin ETF gets approved, several others will likely follow. He emphasized that the SEC cannot play favorites and choose only one, though not all applications may be approved.
  4. Potential Approval of Ethereum Futures ETF: Thiel also mentioned that the SEC seems poised to approve an Ethereum futures ETF, which he believes would increase the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval.
  5. SEC’s Need for Positive Outcomes: Thiel elaborated on the current pressure faced by the SEC, citing the case of the Prometheum exchange and the partial win by Ripple in a lawsuit filed by the agency. He argued that the SEC needs positive outcomes in these areas to alleviate the pressure, especially from Congress.
  6. Thiel’s Views on the Coinbase Case: Thiel also touched on the Coinbase case, stating that the SEC needs to settle it to avoid losing. He suggested that based on the Ripple case’s trajectory, the Coinbase case might likely go against the SEC.
  7. Awaiting Decisions: American investors are still waiting for positive decisions from the SEC, and the recent delay on the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF application has added to the frustration.