In a video update for the “Into The Cryptoverse” YouTube channel, Benjamin Cowen, a seasoned expert in Engineering with a background in Computational Mathematics and Programming, starts by discussing the concept of seasonality in the context of Ethereum. He explains that Ethereum tends to perform best in the first and second quarters of the year (Q1 and Q2). The implication is that purchasing Ethereum in late Q4 and selling it half a year later often yields positive results, especially in a bull market. Conversely, buying Ethereum in the summer does not always yield the same results.
Dr. Cowen then delves into a detailed analysis of Ethereum’s monthly ROI. He presents data from various ROI time frames, starting from 2015, to identify the best and worst months to buy Ethereum.
On a 30-day time frame, the best month to buy Ethereum is January, while the worst is June. The host notes that the worst months cluster from June through November.
When the time frame is extended to 60 days, the data becomes more pronounced. The December-January time frame yields better immediate returns than the summer months. The only month where the 60-day ROI is below one on average is August, suggesting that buying in August and selling in October is historically the worst time to do so.
The trend continues with a 90-day time frame. Buying Ethereum in May, June, July, or August does not usually yield the best 90-day returns. Dr. Cowen notes that during these summer months, prices are often flat, and other cryptocurrencies besides Ethereum tend to move more in Q4.
The 100-day ROI analysis shows a similar trend, with May, June, July, and August not being the best months to buy.
Dr. Cowen also explores long-term ROI time frames, particularly one, two, three, and four years. He notes that these time frames are especially relevant for those in the United States due to long-term capital gains considerations.
December and January are the best months to buy Ethereum on average for a one-year time frame, while July is the worst. The two-year time frame shows the same trend, with June and July being the worst and December and January being the best.
The three-year time frame shows October as the best month to buy, but June and July remain the worst. Finally, for a four-year time frame, June and July are still the worst months to buy Ethereum.
Dr. Cowen concludes by reiterating the seasonality associated with Ethereum. Historically, buying Ethereum in late Q4 or early Q1 tends to yield better returns than buying in the summer months. However, he emphasizes that these trends are based on historical data, and the actual outcomes can vary each year.