Tone Vays is one of the best known names in the crypto industry. Getting involved in the space in early 2013, he has taken an active role in promoting cryptoassets as a means to achieving economic freedom.
Working on Wall Street for over 10 years at Bear Stearns and JP Morgan Chase, Tone witnessed first-hand the financial crisis which precipitated the creation of Bitcoin in 2008.
Featuring in several documentaries including Magic Money & Bitcoin - Beyond the Bubble Tone is now an independent content creator at ToneVays.com and on his YouTube Channel focused on sound economics & finance.
We spoke about threats to Bitcoin, the lightning network, STOs and his bitcoin price prediction for the end of 2019.
What do you make of the growing LocalBitcoin volumes in Venezuela?
Not much…Many of the charts show the LocalBitcoin volume in local currency that is devaluating so it makes those charts look very impressive but if you convert to USD, I do not expect it to be so high. One of the reasons is that in countries like Venezuela, people do not have a lot of money so the impact on Bitcoin with $100 in savings will be small.
What do you think is the single biggest threat to bitcoins existence?
In 2014, I wrote a blog post titled “What is the Biggest Threat to Bitcoin?” my answer back then is the same as it is now “misinformation”. It is much worse today as we now have people that think Bitcoin Cash or Bitcoin SV is Bitcoin and supporters of Ripple & Ethereum try to convince the world that their useless tokens are better than Bitcoin. Second biggest will probably be a Global Government crackdown with the majority of developed nations criminalizing people for anonymous Bitcoin transaction.
In your lifetime do you think we will see: Central banks hold bitcoin in reserve? A collapsed state economy take the 'bitcoin standard' instead of dollarization?
Yes, I believe that in my lifetime, both of these events have a greater than 50% chance of occurring. One of the reasons why I continue to HODL my bitcoins even in a bear market.
Would full anonymity harm bitcoins mainstream adoption due to regulatory pushback?
Yes, as much as I am a supporter of anonymity in Bitcoin, and even think it should be a default feature, I also think that opting out of anonymity should be simple. There are many functions that should not require anonymity and the future for Bitcoin would be brighter if say one-day Tax Revenue is routed through the Bitcoin network with full transparency. In addition, while Bitcoin is still growing, it makes it less confrontational to Governments without full anonymity at the moment.
Are you excited about the lightning network and what do you think it could do for bitcoin?
Very excited. It would allow Bitcoin to be spent instantly, privately & cheaply at sub-penny scales. The implication of this are enormous for mass adoption. It will also mean that all other Crypto Currencies are not needed increasing payment efficiency.
Do you like long term technical analysis based on bitcoin halving cycles?
I am not a fan of the halvings, they create crazy shocks to the ecosystem and miner profitability. During the last halving I was able to properly analyze that price would start rising 3-6 months prior to the halving. I think this year it will do the same but it is not an ideal situation. I do believe in time analysis and long term cycles in general which have also helped me predict some interesting turning points. The one of these critical dates is October 5th, 2019, let’s see what happens.
What is your bitcoin price prediction for the end of 2019?
I am looking for the price to be in the vicinity of $5,000 and the Bear Market has already completed. But it’s really impossible to predict and why I continue to do videos almost daily to keep my followers updated on my thinking.
Do you think STOs have a legitimate use case or are they another bubble like the ICO mania?
The only difference between STOs and ICOs is the fact that one ‘might’ have regulatory approval so there should a lot less outright scams. However, just like ICOs, they will be built on top of insecure & technologically unsalable centralized platforms funded by ICOs back in the day. In addition, 98% of the ICOs/STOs I have looked at are for totally useless projects. I do not find the STO or Stable Coin space particularly interesting and also do not expect another hype bubble like in 2017. I hope people have learned their lesson.
Of all the scams in crypto, which one do you consider the most blatant, despite popular opinion to the contrary?
Probably Ripple and its clones like Stellar. It is a totally useless token that has no reason to exist. Other candidates or tokens that were Proof of Work (PoW) for a month or two so the insiders can accumulate a bunch of them then you convert the token to Proof of Stake (PoS) or invent Masternodes so that those with first access to the token get to make infinitely more of the token. Example so these tokens are TokenPay (PAY), Steemit (STEEM), Dash and soon.
Are there any trends in the crypto industry that you are particularly interested in?
Yes, I am waiting for Bitcoin to decouple from other crypto’s so that when it starts to rise in price & other tokens like Ethereum, Litecoin, Monero & the rest continue to fall or stay flat, I will know the Bear Market is over. I am also looking for instability in the fiat system with Bank Shutdowns like Greece in 2015, Cyprus Confiscation in 2013, Fiat bill cancelations like in India 2017 and a general war on Cash via AML laws. The more Government fights people’s ability to use cash the more likely Bitcoin is to thrive.
What are your plans for the coming year?
I will continue to spend the year educating people about Bitcoin. That is my passion in this space. Sure I will continue to teach people how to be better traders but that is just how I earn a living. I will continue to focus on my YouTube channel & conferences like Unconficatable. I am really looking forward to the Malta conference April 5-7 called Understanding Bitcoin where we will have Bitcoin developers educating the average user that may not even be technical on how to make the most out of using bitcoins.