On 30 October 2022, James Mullarney, the host of the very popular YouTube channel “InvestAnswers”, explained why he expects the Bitcoin price to go above $63,000 by the next block reward halving.
Here is how the “Bitcoin Block Reward Halving Countdown” site (which has an ETA of 1 May 2024 for the next halving) explains what Bitcoin halving means and the reason it exists:
“As part of Bitcoin’s coin issuance, miners are rewarded a certain amount of bitcoins whenever a block is produced (approximately every 10 minutes). When Bitcoin first started, 50 Bitcoins per block were given as a reward to miners. After every 210,000 blocks are mined (approximately every 4 years), the block reward halves and will keep on halving until the block reward per block becomes 0 (approximately by year 2140). As of now, the block reward is 6.25 coins per block and will decrease to 3.125 coins per block post halving…
“Bitcoin was designed as a deflationary currency. Like gold, the premise is that over time, the issuance of bitcoins will decrease and thus become scarcer over time. As bitcoins become scarcer and if demand for them increases over time, Bitcoin can be used as a hedge against inflation as the price, guided by price equilibrium is bound to increase. On the flip side, fiat currencies (like the US dollar), inflate over time as its monetary supply increases, leading to a decrease in purchasing power. This is known as monetary debasement by inflation.“
Anyway, according to a report by The Daily Hodl, Mullarney said last Sunday that he expects the Bitcoin price to 3X by the next Bitcoin halving/halvening (which he thinks could come as early as March 2024):
“Historically, Bitcoin begins to rally 15 months before the next halving. The next halving is expected April or May 2024 – lots of rumors flying around it could happen in December of 2023, depending on the actual timing of the bocks if it goes to less than 10 minutes. I’m still sticking with the April timeframe, 2024.
“November 2022 is 15 months away from that halvening date… Bitcoin tends to finish 39% from where it traded 24 months prior to the halving, and that would imply March 2022 at $45,538 times one plus 39% [($45,538* (1+39%)]… That should take us to $63,160 by March 2024.
“And remember that is not the end of it. After the halvening is when the real action happens. But before, there is a run. So just think about that. Fifteen months from now is a little more than a year and a quarter, not a long time. Bitcoin can triple and then can do a lot more after that.“
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