JPMorgan strategists led by expert Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou have published a report detailing that the price of bitcoin could still hit $145,000 in the long term, but in the short term, the price of the cryptocurrency may still drop further.
As first reported by Cointelegraph, the report comes after the worst month of May in BTC’s history over the last 10 days, with the cryptocurrency dropping from around $57,000 to test the $30,000 mark before recovering to $36,000 at press time.
The strategists at JPMorgan forecasted that the price of bitcoin will continue to trade between $24,000 and $36,000 in the mid term based on the flagship cryptocurrency’s volatility ratios to those of gold. They wrote in a note sent to clients:
The fair value for bitcoin based on a volatility ratio of Bitcoin to gold of around x4 would be 1/4th of $145k or $36k. The fair value for Bitcoin based on the current volatility ratio of Bitcoin to gold of around x6 would be 1/6th of $145k or $24k. We thus see a fair value range of $24k to $36k over the medium term.
The note added that JPMorgan still believes it’s possible for the flagship cryptocurrency to hit $145,000 in the long term, as this is a “theoretical target” for bitcoin that assumes “a convergence of Bitcoin volatility to that of gold and an equalization of bitcoin allocations to that of gold in investor portfolios.”
The strategists last year reported that younger investors prefer bitcoin while older investors go with gold when choosing an alternative investment, but when BTC came close to the $30,000 mark last month suggested investors were dumping BTC in favor of gold as a safe-haven asset.
If BTC were to mature and see investors allocate funds to it as they to gold, it could hit $145,000, they wrote.
$145k is the price of Bitcoin that would equalize it with the private sector holdings of gold for investment purposes of around $2.7tr at the moment.
JPMorgan’s analysts added, however, that “full convergence or equalization of volatilities or allocations is unlikely in the foreseeable future,” as long term signals remain “problematic.” Per the note, BTC would have to drop to $26,000 “before longer-term momentum would signal capitulation.”
Institutional investors, according to Panigirtzoglou’s team, appear reluctant to buy BTC after the major price drop seen last month, as BTC’s rising volatility relative to hold “reduces the attractiveness of digital gold vs. traditional gold in institutional portfolios.”
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