Anonymous Bitcoin (BTC) analyst PlanB is sticking to his guns in predicting a new all-time-high (at least) within one-two years. Citing his Stock-to-Flow model of scarcity-to-price, the prediction is uttered in the shadow of the upcoming Bitcoin halving.
The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, explained fully here, essentially establishes a correlation between the time it takes to reproduce the entire supply of an asset and its value. Bitcoin’s current stock-to-flow rating is near that of silver; but after the next halving, it will bump to something more akin to gold.
#Bitcoin stock-to-flow model on 2010-2012 data still usable in today. It predicted post-2012-halving and post-2016-halving levels quite well. Will it hold again, after May 2020 halving?🤞 pic.twitter.com/rHCRqaumPz
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) April 23, 2020
The upshot of this is that, after the next halving, and assuming some consistency in mining cost, the time it takes to reproduce the existing amount of Bitcoin supply at current rate will be about 50 years – to gold’s 62 years.
IMO #bitcoin 2020 halving will be like 2012 & 2016. As per S2F model I expect 10x price (order of magnitude, not precise) 1-2 yrs after the halving. Halving will be make-or-break for S2F model. I hope this halving will teach us more about underlying fundamentals & network effects pic.twitter.com/kiTdN0n3Lu
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) April 16, 2020
As it stands, Bitcoin’s price is currently very calm, bouncing up and down within a roughly 11% range for almost all of April.
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