Ross Ulbricht, founder of the Silk Road internet market and infamously subject to the draconian punishment of double life sentences in prison, is proposing – if not predicting – the possibility of astonishing Bitcoin (BTC) valuations at some point in the future. But according to him, prices are likely to first go a lot lower.

Ulbricht's price analysis(source:

In a series of April posts, Ulbricht outlined his thoughts according to Elliott Wave theory, considering Bitcoin’s price history from its inception to late 2017 to be just the first of three ultra-massive price waves up.

This also means that the bear market of 2018 would be only the first of two corrective waves to the downside, and which would mean another leg of that bear market would need to shake out during 2020-21.

While not entirely unlikely, it is possible to argue against Ulbricht’s analysis by switching off the logarithmic chart.

Not dead yetBTC chart by TradingView

Here, the general trendline from 2017 and earlier has not been convincingly broken, and the possibility of a regional uptrend has not yet been completely lost. For that to happen, $3,150 would have to be taken out, and it has not yet been – although it has come quite close.

We can also factor in the black-swan effect that COVID-19 has had on the charts, to give some more leeway to the technical limits.

It may be that I even have an advantage being in prison because I am less influenced by day-to-day events and can take a detached, long-term perspective.

Ross Ulbricht

Despite Ulbricht’s downside opinions, he ultimately concludes that “Decades from now, anything below $20,000 will seem cheap.”

Ulbircht’s Sentence

Many believe Ulbricht’s incarceration to be unjust and/or vastly disproportionate to his crime, and a petition to U.S. president Donald Trump to commute his sentence has 284,442 signatures at time of writing.

The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect those of and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

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