Bitcoin (BTC) saw a healthy surge yesterday evening (UTC), which has thrust it back into resistance levels on two timeframes. But now comes the tricky part: we wait to see if this uptrend can be maintained as resistance thickens.
We start on a 4-hour chart to see the general picture, and price is now engaging the local top for the third time in the last week and a half. Although we are seeing the RSI trend break a bit, the general trend is flagging strength with each test of the top – not a good sign. We need to see this trend more definitely broken as the day continues.
On the hourly for a detailed view, we see that $6,500 must be held to keep Bitcoin in the game. But volume is not keeping with price on the surge, and we see a bearish divergence already on the RSI.
Based on this, we might consider it likely that $6,500 will be tested; if we see support there, maybe the uptrend can take a stab at the higher resistance after a beachhead is built.
Finally, on the daily chart, we see that the lower timeframe resistance is confluent with a larger and scarier one. We see that the 8 and 21 EMAs are taken at time of writing, and these need to be held in order for Bitcoin to have a chance at breaking this level.
We see that the RSI has succeeded, barely, in continuing the higher high/low progression, and is not looking especially strong. The histogram is maintaining above the positive side, but with just a little, flat upward direction. Volume continues to fall on the price rise.
This could easily be a relief rally whose time has ended. The current bottom does not look like a strong bottom with a double-test. But these are unusual times; Bitcoin just needs to stay above the EMAs for a few days, and the sentiment could change quickly.
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