In these tumultuous times, where the depression-with-a-D word is starting to crop up, the Bitcoin (BTC) has been pretty inactive since its massive drop in early March. On the medium term charts, it is holding some support levels impressively, and the MTF indicators look promising – and with gold (a.k.a. the other low-inflation asset) exploding, perhaps eyes will start to drift to the venerable cryptocurrency.
We begin on a weekly chart to get a broad impression, and see that Bitcoin has been unable to clear even the 8 EMA after two weeks of flirting with it. It has barely been able to engage the next resistance level up, and its uptrend has not even begun to challenge the previous downtrend’s market structure – we would need to see $8,000 at least for that.
Last week saw a slight bump in volume, although much of that was selling off a local top. Bitcoin is now right in the middle of what we can assume is the larger market structure, a huge sideways-triangle consolidation, with no strong suggestion either way of continuation.
Coming to the weekly indicators, we don’t see a very bullish picture. The RSI is far away from the historic inflection zone of this chart, and doesn’t even look like it wants to test it. The histogram is contracting up at a flat rate – which is not very bullish – and is still deep in the negative zone. The damage done to this chart by the March collapse was spectacular and extensive.
If we zoom in the daily chart, however, things do look better. We see first of all that Bitcoin is being aggressively held at both the 21 EMA and a significant regional support zone. This support is keeping Bitcoin ahead of the local market structure, and at least in the running for an uptrend continuation.
The histogram is arching up here, generally, and we may see an accelerating bullish contraction if we’re lucky.
In sum, Bitcoin is holding strong within a larger no-man’s-land. It is likely gearing up for a larger move soon, as a LTF consolidation completes within the larger market structure. And with its traditional equivalent, gold, blasting off toward its all-time-highs, maybe Bitcoin will follow suit.
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