Ethereum Consolidating as Small Uptrend Languishes — Price Analysis

  • LTF (Low timeframe) trend: Uptrend may break down amid heavy chop
  • MTF trend: A downtrend has now become mostly sideways
  • HTF trend: Uptrend is strong

Ethereum (ETH) has been chomping through an MTF downtrend / correction since mid-Feb, and now appears to be nearing the end of a consolidation within that pattern. On the LTF, a small breakout has struggled to maintain its momentum and may break down soon; this would translate into a continuation of the MTF downtrend.

We start on the daily ETH/Bitcoin chart, and see price consistently closing above the 21 EMA for the past week-plus. This has allowed the 55 EMA plenty of time to catch up after ETH’s major surge in early 2020; this is positive, and will allow Ethereum to build up a base around here if it is able to.

consolidationETH chart by TradingView

Volume has been flat during most of the consolidation, and the histogram is slowly going pulling into a bullish contraction.

On the ETH/Dollar daily, we see a similar picture, although the contraction here is more organized between the 21 and 55 EMAs. We are seeing the RSI start to creep up, and the histogram is contracting bullish mildly.

range between 21/55ETH chart by TradingView

On both charts, there has been enough of a pullback to suffice as a correction within a larger uptrend. The higher Ethereum trend remains up; thus we have an impending conflict between the MTF downtrend and HTF uptrend, which will be decided when the consolidation ends. Either action can be accommodated within the larger uptrend.

Coming to the 4-hour ETH/Dollar chart, we see that a breakout on 2 Feb has had trouble maintaining momentum to the upside. Aggressive selling has kept the leading altcoin stuck below the 21 EMA, although support at $223 seems solid so far.

223 is holding for nowETH chart by TradingView

The histogram here, while it had been looking like a bullish consolidation, is starting to look like it’s breaking down and we might well see this level lost soon. The volume here is falling sharply through, including on the bear side.

Ethereum’s market is pretty choppy, stuck in the middle of an MTF trend with plenty of options both ways. There is not much trend any which way – except the HTF uptrend which remains strong.

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