In late 2019 Bitcoin (BTC) started what was, and potentially still is a long term uptrend. Things have been looking peachy since then within this thesis, even during the recent corrective period that started in early Feb. But now, after this weekend’s massive crypto (and everything else) bloodbath, Bitcoin is at the very limit of its technical levels for maintaining the uptrend.
We start on a 3-day chart to see exactly how this statement is supported. Bitcoin has retraced clean through the ‘golden pocket’ area of the retracement scale, drawn between the first clear impulse bottom and the local top. It is currently being held just above the .786 level after testing it precisely.
Typically, this is the final chance for a retracement to maintain its structure. And here, we can also see a nearly perfect confluence between this line and a significant inflection line from the last few months. If Bitcoin does lose this level, we can consider the HTF uptrend very likely to be invalid.
This level is at $7,600, a couple hundred dollars down from current price. If we come in tight to a 4-hour chart, we see that price might need another leg down in order to find a bottom.
We see one deeply oversold bottom on the RSI, but another price bottom with diverging RSI would give us much more confidence that the selling is over. The histogram has been contracting flat and bullish for about a day, but will likely need to spend more time in the negative zone in order to stabilize.
The moving averages are completely abandoned, and we might consider this a sign that a relief rally is likely soon. In the local area, there is no price history to grapple onto for support, however.
This is the state of things. If $7,600 is lost, Bitcoin is likely to start entering a long term downtrend – the sort that could last all of 2020.
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